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Utilizing machine learning algorithms for predicting risk factors for bone metastasis from right-sided colon carcinoma after complete mesocolic excision: a 10-year retrospective multicenter study.

作者信息

Liu Yuan, Liu Yuankun, Wang Shuting, Niu Sen, Wang Langyu, Xie Jiaheng, Zhao Ning, Zhao Songyun, Cheng Chao, Dai Teng

机构信息

Wuxi Medical Center of Nanjing Medical University, Wuxi, China.

Department of Plastic Surgery, Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, China.

出版信息

Discov Oncol. 2024 Sep 19;15(1):463. doi: 10.1007/s12672-024-01327-z.


DOI:10.1007/s12672-024-01327-z
PMID:39298052
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11413306/
Abstract

BACKGROUND: Bone metastasis (BM) occurs when colon cancer cells disseminate from the primary tumor site to the skeletal system via the bloodstream or lymphatic system. The emergence of such bone metastases typically heralds a significantly poor prognosis for the patient. This study's primary aim is to develop a machine learning model to identify patients at elevated risk of bone metastasis among those with right-sided colon cancer undergoing complete mesocolonectomy (CME). PATIENTS AND METHODS: The study cohort comprised 1,151 individuals diagnosed with right-sided colon cancer, with a subset of 73 patients presenting with bone metastases originating from the colon. We used univariate and multivariate regression analyses as well as four machine learning algorithms to screen variables for 38 characteristic variables such as patient demographic characteristics and surgical information. The study employed four distinct machine learning algorithms, namely, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and k-nearest neighbor algorithm (KNN), to develop the predictive model. Additionally, the model was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA), while Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) was utilized to visualize and analyze the model. RESULTS: The XGBoost algorithm performed the best performance among the four prediction models. In the training set, the XGBoost algorithm had an area under curve (AUC) value of 0.973 (0.953-0.994), an accuracy of 0.925 (0.913-0.936), a sensitivity of 0.921 (0.902-0.940), and a specificity of 0.908 (0.894-0.922). In the validation set, the XGBoost algorithm had an AUC value of 0.922 (0.833-0.995), an accuracy of 0.908 (0.889-0.926), a sensitivity of 0.924 (0.873-0.975), and a specificity of 0.883 (0.810-0.956). Furthermore, the AUC value of 0.83 for the external validation set suggests that the XGBoost prediction model possesses strong extrapolation capabilities. The results of SHAP analysis identified alkaline phosphatase (ALP) levels, tumor size, invasion depth, lymph node metastasis, lung metastasis, and postoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) levels as significant risk factors for BM from right-sided colon cancer subsequent to CME. CONCLUSION: The prediction model for BM from right-sided colon cancer developed using the XGBoost machine learning algorithm in this study is both highly precise and clinically valuable.

摘要
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/817d/11413306/3e7401dd4fbc/12672_2024_1327_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/817d/11413306/6cb1c0f9730d/12672_2024_1327_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/817d/11413306/0217e360ed89/12672_2024_1327_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/817d/11413306/85c491fe5f34/12672_2024_1327_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/817d/11413306/7523d2d74138/12672_2024_1327_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/817d/11413306/4213b211277b/12672_2024_1327_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/817d/11413306/3e7401dd4fbc/12672_2024_1327_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/817d/11413306/6cb1c0f9730d/12672_2024_1327_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/817d/11413306/0217e360ed89/12672_2024_1327_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/817d/11413306/85c491fe5f34/12672_2024_1327_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/817d/11413306/7523d2d74138/12672_2024_1327_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/817d/11413306/4213b211277b/12672_2024_1327_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/817d/11413306/3e7401dd4fbc/12672_2024_1327_Fig6_HTML.jpg

相似文献

[1]
Utilizing machine learning algorithms for predicting risk factors for bone metastasis from right-sided colon carcinoma after complete mesocolic excision: a 10-year retrospective multicenter study.

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[3]
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引用本文的文献

[1]
Artificial Intelligence in Orthopedic Surgery: Current Applications, Challenges, and Future Directions.

MedComm (2020). 2025-6-25

本文引用的文献

[1]
Dynamic Predictive Models with Visualized Machine Learning for Assessing the Risk of Lung Metastasis in Kidney Cancer Patients.

J Oncol. 2022-10-14

[2]
Definition and reporting of lymphadenectomy and complete mesocolic excision for radical right colectomy: a systematic review.

Surg Endosc. 2023-2

[3]
An External-Validated Prediction Model to Predict Lung Metastasis among Osteosarcoma: A Multicenter Analysis Based on Machine Learning.

Comput Intell Neurosci. 2022

[4]
Medical imaging and nuclear medicine: a Lancet Oncology Commission.

Lancet Oncol. 2021-4

[5]
Metastatic heterogeneity of breast cancer: Molecular mechanism and potential therapeutic targets.

Semin Cancer Biol. 2019-8-14

[6]
Inflammation and Cancer: Triggers, Mechanisms, and Consequences.

Immunity. 2019-7-16

[7]
Prognostic impact of the combination of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and Glasgow prognostic score in colorectal cancer: a retrospective cohort study.

Int J Colorectal Dis. 2019-6-8

[8]
Loss of SMAD4 Promotes Colorectal Cancer Progression by Recruiting Tumor-Associated Neutrophils via the CXCL1/8-CXCR2 Axis.

Clin Cancer Res. 2019-1-31

[9]
Global cancer statistics 2018: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries.

CA Cancer J Clin. 2018-9-12

[10]
Characteristics and Prognostic Factors of Bone Metastasis in Patients With Colorectal Cancer.

Dis Colon Rectum. 2018-6

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