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Ten-Year Multicenter Retrospective Study Utilizing Machine Learning Algorithms to Identify Patients at High Risk of Venous Thromboembolism After Radical Gastrectomy.

作者信息

Liu Yuan, Song Chen, Tian Zhiqiang, Shen Wei

机构信息

Department of General Surgery, The Affiliated Wuxi People's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Wuxi, People's Republic of China.

出版信息

Int J Gen Med. 2023 May 18;16:1909-1925. doi: 10.2147/IJGM.S408770. eCollection 2023.


DOI:10.2147/IJGM.S408770
PMID:37228741
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10202705/
Abstract

PURPOSE: This study aims to construct a machine learning model that can recognize preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative high-risk indicators and predict the onset of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 1239 patients diagnosed with gastric cancer were enrolled in this retrospective study, among whom 107 patients developed VTE after surgery. We collected 42 characteristic variables of gastric cancer patients from the database of Wuxi People's Hospital and Wuxi Second People's Hospital between 2010 and 2020, including patients' demographic characteristics, chronic medical history, laboratory test characteristics, surgical information, and patients' postoperative conditions. Four machine learning algorithms, namely, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and k-nearest neighbor (KNN), were employed to develop predictive models. We also utilized Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) for model interpretation and evaluated the models using k-fold cross-validation, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, decision curve analysis (DCA), and external validation metrics. RESULTS: The XGBoost algorithm demonstrated superior performance compared to the other three prediction models. The area under the curve (AUC) value for XGBoost was 0.989 in the training set and 0.912 in the validation set, indicating high prediction accuracy. Furthermore, the AUC value of the external validation set was 0.85, signifying good extrapolation of the XGBoost prediction model. The results of SHAP analysis revealed that several factors, including higher body mass index (BMI), history of adjuvant radiotherapy and chemotherapy, T-stage of the tumor, lymph node metastasis, central venous catheter use, high intraoperative bleeding, and long operative time, were significantly associated with postoperative VTE. CONCLUSION: The machine learning algorithm XGBoost derived from this study enables the development of a predictive model for postoperative VTE in patients after radical gastrectomy, thereby assisting clinicians in making informed clinical decisions.

摘要
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45bf/10202705/8187bb6ac9d6/IJGM-16-1909-g0006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45bf/10202705/df32e2175168/IJGM-16-1909-g0001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45bf/10202705/08b7ec9ba2a5/IJGM-16-1909-g0002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45bf/10202705/1c313b55ab72/IJGM-16-1909-g0003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45bf/10202705/d005bba59821/IJGM-16-1909-g0004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45bf/10202705/21a1852458ed/IJGM-16-1909-g0005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45bf/10202705/8187bb6ac9d6/IJGM-16-1909-g0006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45bf/10202705/df32e2175168/IJGM-16-1909-g0001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45bf/10202705/08b7ec9ba2a5/IJGM-16-1909-g0002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45bf/10202705/1c313b55ab72/IJGM-16-1909-g0003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45bf/10202705/d005bba59821/IJGM-16-1909-g0004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45bf/10202705/21a1852458ed/IJGM-16-1909-g0005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45bf/10202705/8187bb6ac9d6/IJGM-16-1909-g0006.jpg

相似文献

[1]
Ten-Year Multicenter Retrospective Study Utilizing Machine Learning Algorithms to Identify Patients at High Risk of Venous Thromboembolism After Radical Gastrectomy.

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引用本文的文献

[1]
Artificial intelligence in clinical thrombosis and hemostasis: A review.

Res Pract Thromb Haemost. 2025-7-24

[2]
Leveraging machine learning for enhanced and interpretable risk prediction of venous thromboembolism in acute ischemic stroke care.

PLoS One. 2025-3-18

本文引用的文献

[1]
One-Year Incidences of Venous Thromboembolism, Bleeding, and Death in Patients With Lung Cancer (Cancer-VTE Subanalysis).

JTO Clin Res Rep. 2022-8-8

[2]
Stop Explaining Black Box Machine Learning Models for High Stakes Decisions and Use Interpretable Models Instead.

Nat Mach Intell. 2019-5

[3]
Venous Thromboembolism and Cancer: A Comprehensive Review from Pathophysiology to Novel Treatment.

Biomolecules. 2022-2-4

[4]
Possibilistic classification by support vector networks.

Neural Netw. 2022-5

[5]
Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio is a novel predictor of venous thrombosis in polycythemia vera.

Blood Cancer J. 2022-2-10

[6]
Venous thromboembolism: Recent advancement and future perspective.

J Cardiol. 2022-1

[7]
Nomogram for Predicting Deep Venous Thrombosis in Lower Extremity Fractures.

Biomed Res Int. 2021

[8]
Mechanisms of radiation-induced endothelium damage: Emerging models and technologies.

Radiother Oncol. 2021-5

[9]
Hemostatic Balance in Pediatric Acute Liver Failure: Epidemiology of Bleeding and Thrombosis, Physiology, and Current Strategies.

Front Pediatr. 2020-12-23

[10]
Oral mucositis: the hidden side of cancer therapy.

J Exp Clin Cancer Res. 2020-10-7

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