Institute of Pacific Studies, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Tumaco, Kilómetro 30-31 Cajapí vía Nacional Tumaco-Pasto, 528514, Tumaco, Nariño, Colombia.
AI for Climate and Sustainability (AI4CaS), Institute for Experiential AI (EAI), Northeastern University, Boston, USA.
Sci Rep. 2024 Sep 19;14(1):21903. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-71029-7.
Climate change brings a range of challenges and opportunities to shrimp fisheries globally. The case of the Colombian Pacific Ocean (CPO) is notable due the crucial role of shrimps in the economy, supporting livelihoods for numerous families. However, the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of shrimps loom large, making it urgent to scrutinize the prospective alterations that might unfurl across the CPO. Employing the Species Distribution Modeling approach under Global Circulation Model scenarios, we predicted the current and future potential distributions of five commercially important shrimps (Litopenaeus occidentalis, Xiphopenaeus riveti, Solenocera agassizii, Penaeus brevirostris, and Penaeus californiensis) based on an annual cycle, and considering the decades 2030 and 2050 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP 2.6, SSP 4.5, SSP 7.0, and SSP 8.5. The Bathymetric Projection Method was utilized to obtain spatiotemporal ocean bottom predictors, giving the models more realism for reliable habitat predictions. Six spatiotemporal attributes were computed to gauge the changes in these distributions: area, depth range, spatial aggregation, percentage suitability change, gain or loss of areas, and seasonality. L. occidentalis and X. riveti exhibited favorable shifts during the initial semester for both decades and all scenarios, but unfavorable changes during the latter half of the year, primarily influenced by projected modifications in bottom salinity and bottom temperature. Conversely, for S. agassizii, P. brevirostris, and P. californiensis, predominantly negative changes surfaced across all months, decades, and scenarios, primarily driven by precipitation. These changes pose both threats and opportunities to shrimp fisheries in the CPO. However, their effects are not uniform across space and time. Instead, they form a mosaic of complex interactions that merit careful consideration when seeking practical solutions. These findings hold potential utility for informed decision-making, climate change mitigation, and adaptive strategies within the context of shrimp fisheries management in the CPO.
气候变化给全球虾类渔业带来了一系列挑战和机遇。哥伦比亚太平洋地区（CPO）的情况尤为显著，因为虾类在该地区的经济中扮演着至关重要的角色，为数以千计的家庭提供了生计。然而，气候变化对虾类分布的潜在影响巨大，因此迫切需要仔细研究 CPO 可能发生的潜在变化。我们采用物种分布模型方法，根据年度周期，在全球环流模型情景下，对五种商业上重要的虾类（斑节对虾、红对虾、南美蓝对虾、短沟对虾和加州白虾）的当前和未来潜在分布进行了预测，考虑了 2030 年和 2050 年的情况，以及社会经济路径共享 2.6、4.5、7.0 和 8.5 情景。我们利用水深投影方法获得时空海底预测因子，使模型更具现实性，从而更可靠地预测栖息地。计算了六个时空属性来衡量这些分布的变化：面积、深度范围、空间聚集度、适宜性变化百分比、面积增减和季节性。在最初的半年里，L. occidentalis 和 X. riveti 在两个十年和所有情景下都表现出有利的变化，但在下半年表现出不利的变化，主要受底层盐度和底层温度预计变化的影响。相反，对于 S. agassizii、P. brevirostris 和 P. californiensis，在所有月份、十年和情景下，主要受降水影响，都出现了主要的负面变化。这些变化对 CPO 的虾类渔业既构成威胁，也带来机遇。然而，它们的影响在空间和时间上并不均匀。相反，它们形成了一个复杂的相互作用的马赛克，在寻求实际解决方案时需要仔细考虑。这些发现对于 CPO 虾类渔业管理中的知情决策、气候变化缓解和适应性策略具有潜在的实用价值。
