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长三角地区产业网络演化机制的链接预测视角

Evolution mechanism of industrial network in Yangtze River Delta region from the perspective of link prediction.

机构信息

College of Economics and Management, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao, China.

College of Business, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, China.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2024 Sep 20;19(9):e0308544. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0308544. eCollection 2024.

Abstract

The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) is an important engine of national economic development and a leading region in international competition. As economic exchanges and resource flows in the YRD region become closer, the inter-regional industrial linkages continue to grow, resulting in the formation of an industrial network structure characterized by a "complex network". The strength of the links between industrial sectors and the value and significance of the existence of industries in the network change over time, thus causing the overall evolution of the industrial network in the YRD region. Based on the input-output tables of the YRD region in 2012 and 2017, this paper uses the prediction index of network structure similarity to construct the prediction model of industrial network link between the YRD regions, and calculates the possibility of future links between industries in the Yangtze River Delta region through comparative analysis and selection of the RWR index of random walk similarity with the best effect, and concludes that: (1) the homogeneity of industries among provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Delta region is relatively high, resulting in homogeneous competition; (2) the overall nature of the industrial layout of the YRD is not prominent, and the depth and intensity of cross-regional industrial cooperation are lacking. On the basis of analysis and research, the countermeasures and suggestions for effectively realizing industrial integration are put forward from the macro level of the government and the meso level of the industry, so as to achieve a more complete industrial network in the YRD region and a more extensive length and width of the cross-regional industrial chain.

摘要

长三角(YRD)是国家经济发展的重要引擎,也是国际竞争的领先地区。随着长三角地区经济交流和资源流动的日益密切,区域间产业联系不断增强,形成了以“复杂网络”为特征的产业网络结构。产业部门之间联系的强弱以及网络中产业的存在价值和意义随时间而变化,从而导致长三角地区产业网络的整体演变。本文基于 2012 年和 2017 年长三角地区的投入产出表,利用网络结构相似性预测指标构建长三角地区产业网络联系的预测模型,通过对比分析和选择效果最佳的随机游走相似性 RWR 指数,计算长三角地区未来产业联系的可能性,并得出结论:(1)长三角地区各省市产业同质性较高,导致同质化竞争;(2)长三角地区产业布局整体不突出,跨区域产业合作的深度和强度不足。在分析研究的基础上,从政府宏观层面和产业中观层面提出了有效实现产业融合的对策建议,以实现长三角地区更加完整的产业网络和更广泛的跨区域产业链的长度和宽度。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/96cf/11414917/82f74727f842/pone.0308544.g001.jpg

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