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2020 年亚洲脑和中枢神经系统癌症的流行病学和社会经济学相关性及其到 2040 年的预测。

Epidemiology and socioeconomic correlates of brain and central nervous system cancers in Asia in 2020 and their projection to 2040.

机构信息

Neurosciences Research Center, Aging Research Institute, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran.

Department of Community Medicine, Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Faculty of Medicine, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2024 Sep 20;14(1):21936. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-73277-z.

Abstract

Brain and central nervous system (CNS) cancers constitute a heterogeneous group of cancers with poor 5-year survival rates. We aimed to report the epidemiology of brain and CNS cancers in Asia in 2020 and their projections up to 2040 by age, sex, and country, as well as their correlation with socioeconomic status. We extracted data from the 2020 Global Cancer Observatory (GLOBOCAN). Numbers, age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) and mortality rates (ASMRs), 5-year prevalent cases and rates, mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs), and crude rates were calculated. The human development index (HDI) and current healthcare expenditure (CHE)-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio were included as indicators of socioeconomic status. Additionally, the numbers of new cases and deaths were predicted from 2025 to 2040 by multiplying the anticipated population during this period by age-standardized rates. In 2020, there were 166,925 new cases of brain and CNS cancers in Asia, indicating a 5-year prevalence rate of 9.40 per 100,000. We also estimated the total ASIR, ASMR, and MIR as 3.20, 2.60, and 0.83, respectively. There were significant negative correlations between HDI and MIR (correlation coefficient: - 0.538, p value < 0.001) and significant positive correlations between CHE/GDP% and ASIR (correlation coefficient: 0.388, p value: 0.010) and ASMR (correlation coefficient: 0.373, p value: 0.014). In 2040, there will be 232,000 new cases of brain and CNS cancers and 200,000 subsequent deaths in Asia. Our study revealed higher brain and CNS cancer rates in Western Asia among males and elderly individuals. These findings can aid policymakers in enhancing cancer care and suggest the consideration of risk factors in future research.

摘要

脑和中枢神经系统(CNS)癌症构成了一组具有不良 5 年生存率的异质性癌症。我们旨在报告 2020 年亚洲脑和 CNS 癌症的流行病学情况及其到 2040 年的预测数据,包括按年龄、性别和国家划分的情况,以及与社会经济地位的相关性。我们从 2020 年全球癌症观察站(GLOBOCAN)提取数据。计算了数量、年龄标准化发病率(ASIR)和死亡率(ASMR)、5 年现患病例和发病率、死亡率与发病率比(MIR)以及粗发病率。人类发展指数(HDI)和当前医疗保健支出(CHE)占国内生产总值(GDP)的比例被用作社会经济地位的指标。此外,根据这一时期的预期人口与年龄标准化率相乘,预测了 2025 年至 2040 年的新发病例和死亡人数。2020 年,亚洲有 166925 例新的脑和中枢神经系统癌症病例,表明 5 年的患病率为每 10 万人 9.40 例。我们还估计了总 ASIR、ASMR 和 MIR 分别为 3.20、2.60 和 0.83。HDI 与 MIR 之间存在显著的负相关关系(相关系数:-0.538,p 值<0.001),CHE/GDP%与 ASIR(相关系数:0.388,p 值:0.010)和 ASMR(相关系数:0.373,p 值:0.014)之间存在显著的正相关关系。到 2040 年,亚洲将有 232000 例新的脑和中枢神经系统癌症病例和 200000 例后续死亡病例。我们的研究显示,西亚男性和老年人群的脑和中枢神经系统癌症发病率较高。这些发现可以帮助决策者加强癌症护理,并建议在未来的研究中考虑风险因素。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/dadf/11415511/c2ef01660b5a/41598_2024_73277_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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