School of Media and Exhibition, Fujian Business University, Fuzhou, China.
PLoS One. 2024 Sep 27;19(9):e0311090. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0311090. eCollection 2024.
Urban agglomerations, such as the Yangtze River Delta, Yangtze River Middle Reaches, and Chengdu-Chongqing regions, play a crucial role in driving China's regional economic development. While previous studies have focused on economic and social aspects, the fiscal dimension of urban agglomerations remains underexplored. This study addresses this gap by investigating the relationship between population size and fiscal efficiency in these three major urban agglomerations along the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB).We introduce the concept of fiscal efficiency based on revenue and expenditure and select relevant indices, such as efficient population size and fiscal self-reliance. Using statistical data from 2017 to 2019, we employ curve regression analysis in SPSS to estimate the efficient population sizes of these urban agglomerations and examine differences in financial efficiency over time and space. Our analysis reveals that cities with populations over 10 million hinder fiscal efficiency in the Yangtze River Delta, those with 3-5 and 5-10 million in the Yangtze River Middle Reaches, and those with 5-10 and 1-5 million in the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomerations. The maximum financially efficient population sizes are estimated at 648 million for the Yangtze River Delta, 308 million for the Yangtze River Middle Reaches, and 320 million for the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomerations. Considering various fiscal indicators, all three agglomerations demonstrate varying degrees of efficiency. The innovation of this study lies in the interdisciplinary approach, integrating finance, demography, urban planning, and regional economics. By analyzing population size from a fiscal perspective, we provide a novel theoretical framework and analytical tool for policymakers. This study highlights the importance of fiscal balance and population optimization in urban agglomerations, contributing to regional coordinated development and sustainable growth.
城市群，如长三角、长江中游和成渝地区，在推动中国区域经济发展方面发挥着至关重要的作用。虽然以前的研究集中在经济和社会方面，但城市群的财政层面仍未得到充分探索。本研究通过调查长江经济带三大城市群的人口规模与财政效率之间的关系，弥补了这一空白。我们基于收支提出了财政效率的概念，并选择了相关指标，如有效人口规模和财政自给率。利用 2017 年至 2019 年的统计数据，我们在 SPSS 中采用曲线回归分析来估计这些城市群的有效人口规模，并考察了不同时期和不同空间的财政效率差异。我们的分析表明，人口超过 1000 万的城市会阻碍长三角地区的财政效率，人口在 300 万至 500 万和 500 万至 1000 万之间的城市会阻碍长江中游地区的财政效率，人口在 500 万至 1000 万和 100 万至 500 万之间的城市会阻碍成渝城市群的财政效率。长三角、长江中游和成渝城市群的最大财政有效人口规模估计分别为 6.48 亿人、3.08 亿人和 3.20 亿人。考虑到各种财政指标，这三个城市群都表现出不同程度的效率。本研究的创新之处在于采用了跨学科的方法，将金融、人口统计学、城市规划和区域经济学结合起来。通过从财政角度分析人口规模，我们为政策制定者提供了一个新的理论框架和分析工具。本研究强调了财政平衡和人口优化在城市群中的重要性，为区域协调发展和可持续增长做出了贡献。
