College of Medicine, Federal University of the São Francisco Valley (UNIVASF), José de Sá Maniçoba, Centro, Arapiraca, Petrolina, Pernambuco, Alagoas, 56304-917, Brazil.
Research CNPq N2, Postgraduate Program in Family Health, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
BMC Infect Dis. 2024 Sep 27;24(1):1056. doi: 10.1186/s12879-024-09813-z.
Dengue is a vector-borne viral infection caused by the dengue virus transmitted to humans primarily by Aedes aegypti. The year 2024 has been a historic year for dengue in Brazil, with the highest number of probable cases ever registered. Herein, we analyze the temporal trend and spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue cases in Brazil during the first nine epidemiological weeks (EW) of 2024.
This is an ecological study, including all probable cases of dengue in Brazil during the period, carried out in two steps: time series analysis to assess the temporal trend and spatial analysis to identify high-risk clusters.
1,345,801 probable cases of dengue were reported. The regions with the highest increasing trend were the Northeast with an average epidemiologic week percent change (AEPC) of 52.4 (95% CI: 45.5-59.7; p < 0.001) and the South with 35.9 (95% CI: 27.7-44.5; p < 0.001). There was a statistically significant increasing trend in all states, except Acre (AEPC = -4.1; 95% CI: -16.3-10; p = 0.55), Amapá (AEPC = 1.3; 95% CI: -16.2-22.3; p = 0.9) and Espírito Santo (AEPC = 8.9; 95% CI: -15.7-40.6; p = 0.5). The retrospective space-time analysis showed a cluster within the Northeast, Central-West and Southeast regions, with a radius of 515.3 km, in which 1,267 municipalities and 525,324 of the cases were concentrated (RR = 6.3; p < 0.001). Regarding the spatial variation of the temporal trend, 21 risk areas were found, all of them located in Southeast or Central-West states. The area with the highest relative risk was Minas Gerais state, where 5,748 cases were concentrated (RR = 8.1; p < 0.001). Finally, a purely spatial analysis revealed 25 clusters, the one with the highest relative risk being composed of two municipalities in Acre (RR = 6.9; p < 0.001).
We described a detailed temporal-spatial analysis of dengue cases in the first EWs of 2024 in Brazil, which were mainly concentrated in the Southeast and Central-West regions. Overall, it is recommended that governments adopt public policies to control the the vector population in high-risk areas, as well as to prevent the spread of dengue fever to other areas of Brazil.
登革热是一种由登革病毒引起的虫媒病毒感染，主要由埃及伊蚊传播给人类。2024 年是巴西登革热史上具有历史意义的一年，登记的疑似病例数创历史新高。在此，我们分析了 2024 年第一九个流行病学周（EW）期间巴西登革热病例的时间趋势和时空动态。
这是一项包括该期间巴西所有疑似登革热病例的生态学研究，分两步进行：时间序列分析以评估时间趋势，空间分析以确定高风险集群。
共报告 1345801 例疑似登革热病例。增长趋势最高的地区是东北部，平均流行病学周百分比变化（AEPC）为 52.4（95%CI：45.5-59.7；p<0.001）和南部为 35.9（95%CI：27.7-44.5；p<0.001）。除阿克里州（AEPC=-4.1；95%CI：-16.3-10；p=0.55）、阿马帕州（AEPC=1.3；95%CI：-16.2-22.3；p=0.9）和圣埃斯皮里图州（AEPC=8.9；95%CI：-15.7-40.6；p=0.5）外，所有州均呈统计学显著上升趋势。回顾性时空分析显示，东北部、中西部和东南部地区存在一个半径为 515.3km 的集群，其中集中了 1267 个城市和 525324 例病例（RR=6.3；p<0.001）。关于时间趋势的空间变化，发现了 21 个风险区域，全部位于东南部或中西部各州。风险最高的地区是米纳斯吉拉斯州，集中了 5748 例病例（RR=8.1；p<0.001）。最后，纯粹的空间分析显示有 25 个集群，其中风险最高的集群由阿克里州的两个城市组成（RR=6.9；p<0.001）。
我们描述了 2024 年第一九个流行病学周期间巴西登革热病例的详细时空分析，主要集中在东南部和中西部地区。总体而言，建议政府采取公共政策来控制高风险地区的媒介种群，并防止登革热传播到巴西其他地区。
