Kayembe Lidia K, Fischer Leah S, Adhikari Bishwa B, Knapp Jennifer K, Khan Emily B, Greening Bradford R, Papania Mark, Meltzer Martin I
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Rd NE, Atlanta, GA 30329, USA.
Vaccines (Basel). 2024 Sep 23;12(9):1083. doi: 10.3390/vaccines12091083.
Global measles vaccine coverage has stagnated at approximately 85% for over a decade. By simplifying vaccine logistics and administration, the measles and rubella microarray patch (MR-MAP) may improve coverage. Clinical trials have demonstrated similar safety and immunogenicity in 9-month-old infants for MR-MAPs compared with syringe-and-needle vaccination. To aid commercialization, we present estimates of MR-MAP demand. We created a spreadsheet-based tool to estimate demand for MR-MAPs using data from 180 WHO countries during 2000-2016. Five immunization scenarios were analyzed: (1a) Supplementary Immunization Activities (SIAs) in Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance (Gavi)-eligible countries and (1b) WHO countries where preventive SIAs are routinely conducted; (2) SIAs and outbreak response immunization in all WHO countries; (3) routine immunization (RI) and SIAs in six high-burden measles countries (the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Pakistan); (4) RI and SIAs in six high-burden countries and Gavi-eligible countries; and (5) hard-to-reach populations. MR-MAP demand varied greatly across scenarios. Forecasts for 2025-2034 estimate from 137 million doses in hard-to-reach populations (scenario 5) to 2.587 billion doses for RI and SIAs in six high-burden countries and Gavi-eligible countries (scenario 4). When policymakers and manufacturers assess MR-MAP demand, they may consider multiple scenarios to allow for a complete consideration of potential markets and public health needs.
全球麻疹疫苗接种覆盖率在十多年来一直停滞在约85%。通过简化疫苗物流和接种流程，麻疹风疹微阵列贴片（MR-MAP）可能会提高接种覆盖率。临床试验表明，与注射器和针头接种相比，MR-MAP在9个月大婴儿中具有相似的安全性和免疫原性。为推动商业化，我们给出了MR-MAP需求的估计值。我们创建了一个基于电子表格的工具，利用2000 - 2016年期间世界卫生组织180个国家的数据来估计MR-MAP的需求。分析了五种免疫接种情景：（1a）疫苗免疫联盟（Gavi）合格国家的补充免疫活动（SIAs），以及（1b）常规开展预防性SIAs的世界卫生组织国家；（2）所有世界卫生组织国家的SIAs和疫情应对免疫接种；（3）六个麻疹高负担国家（刚果民主共和国、埃塞俄比亚、印度、印度尼西亚、尼日利亚和巴基斯坦）的常规免疫接种（RI）和SIAs；（4）六个高负担国家和Gavi合格国家的RI和SIAs；以及（5）难以到达的人群。MR-MAP的需求在不同情景下差异很大。2025 - 2034年的预测估计，难以到达人群的需求为1.37亿剂（情景5），而六个高负担国家和Gavi合格国家的RI和SIAs需求为25.87亿剂（情景4）。当政策制定者和制造商评估MR-MAP需求时，他们可能会考虑多种情景，以便全面考虑潜在市场和公共卫生需求。
