School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, SAR, China.
Health Syst Reform. 2024 Dec 16;10(1):2400725. doi: 10.1080/23288604.2024.2400725. Epub 2024 Sep 30.
China's ability to sustain the zero-COVID strategy over three years has garnered global attention, but little is known about the factors contributing to its long-term adherence. Based on the political promotion tournament model, this article theorizes that China's strict administrative accountability system, which tied local officials' career prospects to their performance in crucial policy goals, incentivized local governments to sustain COVID-19 policies. Using data from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker and major official Chinese media outlets, we performed interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) to examine whether the accountability events affected the local government's COVID-19 responses. Noticeably, our analyses found that from May 4, 2020, to September 30, 2022, when an accountability event happened, officials in the affected (local effects) and unaffected (spillover effects) provinces all increased their containment responses and decreased their economic support responses. This is true even for provinces without new localized outbreaks. The effects of accountability events increased with decreasing geographical distance. These findings remain consistent after several robustness checks. The administrative accountability system is a key institutional factor in implementing China's zero-COVID strategy, which contributed to the global literature about the pandemic policy process in centralized countries.
中国能够在三年的时间里坚持“动态清零”政策,这引起了全球的关注,但人们对推动其长期坚持这一政策的因素知之甚少。基于政治晋升锦标赛模型,本文认为,中国严格的行政问责制将地方官员的职业前景与其在关键政策目标上的表现挂钩,激励地方政府坚持疫情防控政策。本文利用牛津大学 COVID-19 政府应对追踪数据和中国主要官方媒体的数据,采用中断时间序列分析(ITSA)来检验问责事件是否影响了地方政府的疫情应对措施。值得注意的是,我们的分析发现,从 2020 年 5 月 4 日至 2022 年 9 月 30 日,每当发生问责事件时,受影响(地方效应)和不受影响(溢出效应)省份的官员都增加了遏制措施,减少了经济支持措施。即使是在没有新的局部疫情爆发的省份,也是如此。问责事件的影响随着地理距离的减小而增加。经过几次稳健性检验后,这些发现仍然成立。行政问责制是中国“动态清零”战略实施的关键制度因素,这为集中化国家的大流行政策过程的全球文献做出了贡献。