Hoffmann Sandra, White Alice E, McQueen Robert B, Ahn Jae-Wan, Gunn-Sandell Lauren B, Scallan Walter Elaine J
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Washington, District of Columbia, USA.
Colorado School of Public Health, Aurora, Colorado, USA.
Foodborne Pathog Dis. 2024 Oct 2. doi: 10.1089/fpd.2023.0157.
Foodborne disease burden estimates inform public health priorities and can help the public understand disease impact. This article provides new estimates of the cost of U.S. foodborne illness. Our research updated disease modeling underlying these cost estimates with a focus on enhancing chronic sequelae modeling and enhancing uncertainty modeling. Our cost estimates were based on U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates of the numbers of foodborne illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths caused by 31 known foodborne pathogens and unspecified foodborne agents. We augmented these estimates of illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths with more detailed modeling of health outcomes, including chronic sequelae. For health outcomes, we relied on U.S. data and research where possible, supplemented by the use of non-U.S. research where necessary and scientifically appropriate. Cost estimates were developed from large insurance or hospital charge databases, public data sources, and existing literature and were adjusted to 2023 dollars. We estimated the cost of foodborne illness in the United States circa 2023 to be $75 billion. Deaths accounted for 56% and chronic outcomes for 31% of the mean cost. The costliest pathogen was nontyphoidal at $17.1 billion followed by at $11.3 billion. ($5.7 billion) and ($4 billion) followed due primarily to deaths and chronic outcomes from pregnancy-associated cases. Per-case cost ranged from $196 for to $4.6 million for Unspecified agents accounted for 38% of the total cost of foodborne illness, but these illnesses were generally mild (per-case cost $781). These cost estimates can help inform food safety priorities. Our pathogen-specific per-case cost estimates can also help inform benefit-cost analysis required for new federal food safety regulations.
食源性疾病负担估计为公共卫生重点工作提供信息，并有助于公众了解疾病影响。本文提供了美国食源性疾病成本的新估计。我们的研究更新了这些成本估计背后的疾病模型，重点是加强慢性后遗症模型和不确定性模型。我们的成本估计基于美国疾病控制与预防中心对31种已知食源性病原体和未明确食源性病原体导致的食源性疾病、住院和死亡人数的估计。我们通过对包括慢性后遗症在内的健康结果进行更详细的建模，增加了对这些疾病、住院和死亡人数的估计。对于健康结果，我们尽可能依赖美国的数据和研究，并在必要且科学合理的情况下补充使用非美国的研究。成本估计是根据大型保险或医院收费数据库、公共数据源和现有文献得出的，并调整为2023年的美元价值。我们估计2023年前后美国食源性疾病的成本为750亿美元。死亡占平均成本的56%，慢性后果占31%。成本最高的病原体是非伤寒沙门氏菌，为171亿美元，其次是弯曲杆菌，为113亿美元。（57亿美元）和（40亿美元），主要是由于与妊娠相关病例导致的死亡和慢性后果。每例成本从诺如病毒的196美元到李斯特菌的460万美元不等。未明确的病原体占食源性疾病总成本的38%，但这些疾病通常较轻（每例成本781美元）。这些成本估计有助于为食品安全重点工作提供信息。我们针对病原体的每例成本估计也有助于为新的联邦食品安全法规所需的效益成本分析提供信息。
