Rehm Jürgen, Tran Alexander, Hassan Ahmed Syed, Jiang Huan, Lange Shannon, Reile Rainer, ŠtelemĖkas Mindaugas
Institute for Mental Health Policy Research, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Toronto, Canada.
World Health Organization/Pan American Health Organization Collaborating Centre, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Toronto, Canada.
Scand J Public Health. 2024 Oct 6:14034948241280772. doi: 10.1177/14034948241280772.
We tested the polarization hypothesis, which postulates that during times of crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, alcohol consumption increases among the heaviest drinkers but decreases among most other drinkers, resulting in an overall decrease in consumption among the population. We posited the increase in heavy drinking would lead to increases in 100% alcohol-attributable (AA) mortality. Furthermore, based on the high level of alcohol consumption in the Baltic countries compared to other European countries, we predicted that the increases in AA mortality would be more pronounced in these countries.
Data for 100% AA deaths were obtained from the World Health Organization for the period 2010 to 2022, and standardized to the regional age distribution for 2010. Parametric and non-parametric tests were used to test the study hypotheses.
The mean age-standardized 100% AA mortality rate increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in the 19 European countries with data by 3.12 deaths per 100,000 population, constituting an 18% increase (tested against no change: = 2.52; df = 18; = 0.021). This increase was higher in the Baltic countries (mean difference = 13.41 deaths per 100,000 population; standard deviation (SD) = 7.44; 46% increase) than for other European countries (mean difference = 1.19; SD = 1.55; 8% increase). The increases in 100% AA mortality were associated with decreases in the level of alcohol consumption in the majority of countries.
As predicted, 100% AA mortality increased in 19 European countries during the COVID-19 pandemic, with the Baltic countries seeing a higher increase. Renewed alcohol control policy efforts should be considered.
我们检验了两极分化假说，该假说假定在危机时期，如新冠疫情期间，饮酒量在饮酒最多的人群中会增加，而在其他大多数饮酒者中会减少，从而导致总体人群饮酒量下降。我们假定重度饮酒增加会导致100%酒精归因（AA）死亡率上升。此外，基于波罗的海国家与其他欧洲国家相比酒精消费水平较高，我们预测这些国家的AA死亡率上升会更为明显。
从世界卫生组织获取2010年至2022年期间100% AA死亡的数据，并根据2010年的区域年龄分布进行标准化。使用参数检验和非参数检验来检验研究假设。
在有数据的19个欧洲国家中，新冠疫情期间年龄标准化的100% AA死亡率平均每10万人口增加了3.12例死亡，增幅为18%（与无变化相比检验： = 2.52；自由度 = 18； = 0.021）。波罗的海国家的增幅（平均差异为每10万人口13.41例死亡；标准差（SD） = 7.44；增幅46%）高于其他欧洲国家（平均差异 = 1.19；SD = 1.55；增幅8%）。在大多数国家，100% AA死亡率的上升与酒精消费水平的下降有关。
正如预测的那样，在新冠疫情期间，19个欧洲国家的100% AA死亡率上升，波罗的海国家上升幅度更高。应考虑重新加强酒精控制政策措施。
