Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona , Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.
Proc Biol Sci. 2024 Oct;291(2032):20240959. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2024.0959. Epub 2024 Oct 9.
Unpredictably fluctuating environments create complex selective landscapes that shape the distribution of key life history traits. Identifying the mechanisms behind dynamic patterns of selection is difficult, yet essential for predicting responses to climate change. We combine long-term measures with field manipulation of natural selection on breeding date in a wild bird to investigate whether highly variable spring cold snaps drive fluctuating selection. We show that variation in cold snap intensity leads to fluctuating selection on breeding date-in weak cold snap years, selection was consistently negative; however, in strong cold snap years, its direction reversed. These patterns were mirrored in a field experiment; nests that were food supplemented during cold snaps avoided cold snap mortality leading earlier breeders to have higher fitness. In contrast, in the non-supplemented group earlier breeders had higher cold snap nest mortality and selection was positive. Using nearly a century of climate data, we show that cold snaps are becoming less frequent and paradoxically occurring later which should allow earlier breeders to avoid them, potentially releasing conflicting selection pressures and facilitating a rapid phenological shift. Thus, rather than constraining a species' ability to adapt, climate change can enable a rapid shift to a new phenotypic optimum.
不可预测的环境波动会形成复杂的选择景观,从而影响关键生活史特征的分布。确定选择动态模式背后的机制具有挑战性,但对于预测对气候变化的响应至关重要。我们结合长期测量和对野鸟繁殖日期的自然选择的野外操作,研究春季寒潮的剧烈变化是否会导致选择的波动。我们发现,寒潮强度的变化导致繁殖日期的选择发生波动——在寒潮较弱的年份,选择一直为负;然而,在寒潮较强的年份,选择方向发生了逆转。这些模式在野外实验中得到了印证;在寒潮期间进行食物补充的鸟巢避免了寒潮导致的死亡率,这使得较早繁殖的个体具有更高的适应性。相比之下,在未进行补充的组中,较早繁殖的个体在寒潮中的巢死亡率更高,选择为正。利用近一个世纪的气候数据,我们发现寒潮变得越来越不频繁,而且发生得越来越晚,这应该使较早繁殖的个体能够避免寒潮,从而可能释放出相互冲突的选择压力,并促进快速的物候转变。因此,气候变化并没有限制一个物种的适应能力,反而可以使其迅速转变到新的表型最优状态。