Population isolation in the Plains spadefoot toad: causes and conservation implications.

Range disjunctions appear to be common in nature, although they may be caused by various factors. They may simply be an artefact of inadequate sampling. If real, they may be the result of colonization events or habitat change. With natural habitats showing increasing fragmentation because of human activity, understanding the cause of a disjunction can have important conservation implications. We investigate the geographical range of the Plains spadefoot toad, , a widely distributed species in the midwestern and southwestern United States, with a putative disjunct population in southern Texas. We combine GIS mapping, species distribution modeling, and population genetic analysis to investigate this putative disjunction. We establish that this southern Texas population is truly geographically disjunct and genetically distinct. Further, using climate projections we show that this unique population is at high risk of local extinction.