Material demand and recycling potential driven by wind power expansion in China.

Wind power is considered a critical technology for the transition to renewable energy systems, but it relies on the construction of material-intensive infrastructure. Driven by carbon neutrality targets, the expansion of wind power in China will increase the demand for structural materials such as concrete and steel, as well as critical minerals like rare earth materials. This study used a dynamic material flow analysis method to estimate the material demand and scrappage in China's wind power system from 1989 to 2050, considering the differences in material usage among various wind power subtechnologies. The results indicate that since 1989, the majority of materials consumed in China's wind power system have been concrete and steel, with the consumption of rare earth materials being the least, but growing at the fastest rate. By 2050, the expansion of wind power in China will drive the cumulative demand for 731-865 Mt concrete, 533-656 Mt steel & cast iron, 8-10 Mt copper, and 154-178 kt rare earths. Importantly, in 2050, more than 50% of base metals and more than 90% of rare earth demand will be met through recycling decommissioned equipment. The Chinese government should speed up the improvement of the recycling system of decommissioned wind power equipment and further promote the research and application of rare earth recycling technology so as to realize the development of a green and low-carbon wind power industry.