Schmitt Jean, Hatzopoulou Marianne, Abdul-Manan Amir F N, MacLean Heather L, Posen I Daniel
Department of Civil & Mineral Engineering, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S 1A4, Canada.
Strategic Transport Analysis Team, Transport Technologies, Research and Development Center, Saudi Aramco, Dhahran 31311, Saudi Arabia.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2024 Oct 22;121(43):e2320858121. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2320858121. Epub 2024 Oct 14.
We present a dynamic perspective to quantify the air quality-related health impacts of the electrification of light-duty vehicles in the United States between 2022 and 2050. Using a fleet turnover model and future electricity generation mix scenarios, we compare ambitious vehicle electrification to fleet renewal relying on newer internal combustion engine vehicles, without electric vehicles. The model includes vehicle-level pollutant emission factors and a reduced complexity air quality and valuation model and covers direct (tailpipe, brake wear, and tire wear) and indirect (production of electricity and liquid fuels) emissions of NO, SO, PM, NH, and VOCs, with a breakdown at the county level to identify geographical disparities in the distribution of health impacts. Short-term health benefits are mostly generated by reductions in NO emissions from newer gasoline vehicles, while fleet electrification generates further benefits in the long term. The electricity mix plays a crucial role in the success of electrification policies. With continued grid decarbonization, electrification would reduce harmful air quality-related health impacts cumulatively by 84 to 188 billion USD over the study period, compared with fleet renewal without electric vehicles. In contrast, artificially freezing the 2022 grid would make electrification responsible for 32 to 71 billion USD additional health disbenefits compared with fleet renewal. Finally, we show that while fleet electrification achieves most of its benefits over fleet renewal in the long term, delaying the implementation of such policies would sacrifice meaningful cumulative benefits.
我们提出了一个动态视角，以量化2022年至2050年期间美国轻型车辆电动化对空气质量相关健康影响。利用车队更替模型和未来发电组合情景，我们将雄心勃勃的车辆电动化与依赖更新的内燃机车辆（不包括电动汽车）的车队更新进行了比较。该模型包括车辆层面的污染物排放因子以及一个简化的空气质量和估值模型，涵盖了一氧化氮（NO）、二氧化硫（SO）、颗粒物（PM）、氨（NH）和挥发性有机化合物（VOCs）的直接（尾气、刹车磨损和轮胎磨损）和间接（电力和液体燃料生产）排放，并在县级层面进行细分，以确定健康影响分布中的地理差异。短期健康益处主要来自新型汽油车NO排放的减少，而车队电动化在长期内会带来更多益处。电力组合在电动化政策的成功中起着关键作用。随着电网持续脱碳，与没有电动汽车的车队更新相比，在研究期间电动化将累计减少与空气质量相关的有害健康影响，减少幅度在840亿至1880亿美元之间。相比之下，人为冻结2022年的电网，与车队更新相比，电动化将导致额外320亿至710亿美元的健康负效益。最后，我们表明，虽然从长远来看，车队电动化比车队更新能实现大部分益处，但推迟实施此类政策将牺牲可观的累积效益。
