Department of Civil & Mineral Engineering , University of Toronto , 35 St. George Street , Toronto , Ontario M5S 1A4 Canada.
Materials & Manufacturing R&A Department , Ford Motor Company , Dearborn , Michigan 48121-2053 , United States.
Environ Sci Technol. 2019 Feb 19;53(4):2199-2208. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.8b04249. Epub 2019 Feb 6.
Substituting conventional materials with lightweight materials is an effective way to reduce the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from light-duty vehicles. However, estimated GHG emission reductions of lightweighting depend on multiple factors including the vehicle powertrain technology and efficiency, lightweight material employed, and end-of-life material recovery. We developed a fleet-based life cycle model to estimate the GHG emission changes due to lightweighting the U.S. light-duty fleet from 2016 to 2050, using either high strength steel or aluminum as the lightweight material. Our model estimates that implementation of an aggressive lightweighting scenario using aluminum reduces 2016 through 2050 cumulative life cycle GHG emissions from the fleet by 2.9 Gt CO eq (5.6%), and annual emissions in 2050 by 11%. Lightweighting has the greatest GHG emission reduction potential when implemented in the near-term, with two times more reduction per kilometer traveled if implemented in 2016 rather than in 2030. Delaying implementation by 15 years sacrifices 72% (2.1 Gt CO eq) of the cumulative GHG emission mitigation potential through 2050. Lightweighting is an effective solution that could provide important near-term GHG emission reductions especially during the next 10-20 years when the fleet is dominated by conventional powertrain vehicles.
用轻质材料替代传统材料是降低轻型车生命周期温室气体（GHG）排放的有效方法。然而，轻量化的估计 GHG 减排量取决于多个因素，包括车辆动力系统技术和效率、使用的轻质材料以及报废时的材料回收。我们开发了一种基于车队的生命周期模型，以估计从 2016 年到 2050 年美国轻型车队轻量化对 GHG 排放的变化，使用高强度钢或铝作为轻质材料。我们的模型估计，采用铝实施积极的轻量化方案可将 2016 年至 2050 年车队的累计生命周期 GHG 排放量减少 2.9 吉吨 CO eq（5.6%），并将 2050 年的年度排放量减少 11%。轻量化在近期实施时具有最大的 GHG 减排潜力，如果在 2016 年而不是 2030 年实施，每行驶一公里的减排量将增加两倍。如果将实施时间推迟 15 年，则在 2050 年前将丧失 72%（2.1 吉吨 CO eq）的累计 GHG 减排潜力。轻量化是一种有效的解决方案，可以在未来 10-20 年内车队主要由传统动力系统车辆主导的情况下，提供重要的近期 GHG 减排。
