Characteristics of Italian, German and Spanish Socio-Economic, Public Health and Long-Term Care Systems Associated with COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality in the First Pandemic Year: Lessons for Future Sustainability in an International Perspective.

The main outcomes of the COVID-19 pandemic can be used to assess the capability and sustainability of public healthcare and Long-Term Care (LTC) systems. This study aims to identify the population's demographic and socio-economic characteristics, as well as other national resources associated with the incidence and mortality of COVID-19, by comparing three European countries during the first pandemic period (Italy, Spain, and Germany). The results will identify possible strengths and weaknesses that could be considered as hints of the need for health and social intervention. Variables describing the countries' core demographics, socio-economic characteristics, and national resources were collected from 2001-2021 from well-established international databases. COVID-19 incidence and death figures from 1 March 2020 to 31 March 2021 were extracted from national health databases. Analysis focused on bivariate and weighted multivariable linear regressions between incidence, mortality, and socio-economic covariates. Findings show that both care models and socio-demographic characteristics influenced the capability of the first year's response to the COVID-19 emergency. Formal public care appears to represent the most effective strategy against incidence and mortality regarding COVID-19, especially for older people, because it mitigates the adverse effects of socio-economic characteristics. Current strategies oriented towards privatizing care should, therefore, be considered critically, since they may result in weaker protection of vulnerable groups, such as frail older people, due to the unequal position of individuals with different socio-economic conditions in purchasing services from the care market.