Institute of Primary Care, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
Ultra Sports Science Foundation, Pierre-Benite, France.
PLoS One. 2024 Oct 16;19(10):e0312097. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0312097. eCollection 2024.
Extensive research has delved into the impact of environmental circumstances on the pacing and performance of professional marathon runners. However, the effects of environmental conditions on the pacing strategies employed by marathon participants in general remain relatively unexplored. This study aimed to examine the potential associations between various environmental factors, encompassing temperature, barometric pressure, humidity, precipitation, sunshine, cloud cover, wind speed, and dew point, and the pacing behavior of men and women. The retrospective analysis involved a comprehensive dataset comprising records from a total of 668,509 runners (520,521 men and 147,988 women) who participated in the 'Berlin Marathon' events between the years 1999 and 2019. Through correlations, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, and machine learning (ML) methods, we investigated the relationships between adjusted average temperature values, barometric pressure, humidity, precipitation, sunshine, cloud cover, wind speed, and dew point, and their impact on race times and paces. This analysis was conducted across distinct performance groups, segmented by 30-minute intervals, for race durations between 2 hours and 30 minutes to 6 hours. The results revealed a noteworthy negative correlation between rising temperatures and declining humidity throughout the day and the running speed of marathon participants in the 'Berlin Marathon.' This effect was more pronounced among men than women. The average pace for the full race showed positive correlations with temperature and minutes of sunshine for both men and women. However, it is important to note that the predictive capacity of our model, utilizing weather variables as predictors, was limited, accounting for only 10% of the variance in race pace. The susceptibility to temperature and humidity fluctuations exhibited a discernible increase as the marathon progressed. While weather conditions exerted discernible influences on running speeds and outcomes, they did not emerge as significant predictors of pacing.
大量研究深入探讨了环境因素对专业马拉松运动员配速和表现的影响。然而，环境条件对一般马拉松参与者所采用的配速策略的影响仍相对未被探索。本研究旨在检验各种环境因素（包括温度、气压、湿度、降水、阳光、云量、风速和露点）与男性和女性配速行为之间的潜在关联。该回顾性分析涉及一个综合数据集，其中包含了 1999 年至 2019 年间参加“柏林马拉松”赛事的总计 668509 名跑步者（520521 名男性和 147988 名女性）的记录。通过相关性、普通最小二乘法（OLS）回归和机器学习（ML）方法，我们研究了调整后的平均温度值、气压、湿度、降水、阳光、云量、风速和露点与比赛时间和配速之间的关系。该分析在不同的表现群体中进行，这些群体按 30 分钟的间隔分段，比赛时间在 2 小时 30 分钟到 6 小时之间。结果表明，在整个白天，温度升高和湿度下降与马拉松参与者的跑步速度呈显著负相关，这种影响在男性中比女性更为明显。男女参与者的全程平均配速与温度和阳光分钟数呈正相关。然而，需要注意的是，我们的模型利用天气变量作为预测因子的预测能力有限，仅能解释比赛配速方差的 10%。随着马拉松的进行，对温度和湿度波动的敏感性明显增加。尽管天气条件对跑步速度和结果产生了明显的影响，但它们并不是配速的重要预测因子。
