Department of Statistics, College of Natural Sciences, Woldia University, Woldia, Ethiopia.
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Institute of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia.
J Health Popul Nutr. 2024 Oct 16;43(1):162. doi: 10.1186/s41043-024-00659-4.
Fertility refers to the biological capacity to reproduce and have children. It is a key aspect of reproductive health influenced by various factors. Therefore, this study aims to explore the determinants of fertility rates based on urban and rural settings in Ethiopia.
A stratified two-stage cluster sampling approach was used, employing data from the 2019 Ethiopian Mini Demographic and Health Survey ( https://dhsprogram.com ). The study comprised 8,885 women aged 15 to 49 years. The study employed Stata 17, and the data was described using descriptive statistics. Associations were examined using decomposition analysis and negative binomial regression. The Incidence Rate Ratio and p-value were used to determine the statistical significance of the variables examined.
The negative binomial regression found that factors such as maternal age (IRR, 1.08, P-value,0.00), living in rural (IRR,1.09, P-value,0.00), being Muslim (IRR,1.13, P-value,0.00), being from other religious groups (IRR,1.16, P-value,0.00), having six up to nine household members (IRR,1.24, P-value,0.00), having greater than nine household member(IRR,1.14, P-value,0.04), having one child under five year (IRR,1.35, P-value,0.00), having two children under five year (IRR,1.77, P-value,0.00), and having more than two under five years (IRR,1.99, P-value,0.00), being currently pregnant (IRR,1.08, P-value,0.00), use of contraceptive(IRR,1.13, P-value,0.00) are positively associated with bearing more children. On the other hand, completing primary education (IRR,0.84, P-value,0.00), secondary education (IRR,0.61, P-value,0.00), being from the richest household (IRR = 0.94, P-value,0.00), and being single/divorced and widowed (IRR,0.49, P-value,0.00) are negatively associated with having more children because their IRR is less than one. The decomposition analysis also demonstrated that marital status has a stronger negative correlation with fertility in rural compared to urban settings. Additionally, the number of children under five exerts a greater influence on fertility in urban areas.
the study found significant rural-urban differences in the factors shaping fertility in Ethiopia. While demographics like maternal age, education, and wealth influenced fertility in both settings, the relationships varied in nature and magnitude. To address this, Policymakers should develop targeted fertility programs that address the unique needs and challenges faced by rural and urban populations.
生育能力是指繁殖和生育子女的生物学能力。它是生殖健康的一个关键方面，受到各种因素的影响。因此，本研究旨在探讨基于埃塞俄比亚城乡环境的生育率决定因素。
采用分层两阶段聚类抽样方法，利用 2019 年埃塞俄比亚微型人口与健康调查（https://dhsprogram.com）的数据。研究对象为 8885 名 15 至 49 岁的妇女。采用 Stata17 进行研究，使用描述性统计对数据进行描述。使用分解分析和负二项回归检验关联。使用发病率比（IRR）和 p 值来确定所检查变量的统计学意义。
负二项回归发现，产妇年龄（IRR，1.08，P 值，0.00）、居住在农村（IRR，1.09，P 值，0.00）、穆斯林（IRR，1.13，P 值，0.00）、其他宗教团体（IRR，1.16，P 值，0.00）、有 6 至 9 个家庭成员（IRR，1.24，P 值，0.00）、有 9 个以上家庭成员（IRR，1.14，P 值，0.04）、有一个 5 岁以下的孩子（IRR，1.35，P 值，0.00）、有两个 5 岁以下的孩子（IRR，1.77，P 值，0.00）、有两个以上 5 岁以下的孩子（IRR，1.99，P 值，0.00）、目前怀孕（IRR，1.08，P 值，0.00）、使用避孕药具（IRR，1.13，P 值，0.00）与生育更多孩子呈正相关。另一方面，完成小学教育（IRR，0.84，P 值，0.00）、中学教育（IRR，0.61，P 值，0.00）、来自最富裕家庭（IRR=0.94，P 值，0.00）、单身/离婚和丧偶（IRR，0.49，P 值，0.00）与生育更多孩子呈负相关，因为它们的 IRR 小于 1。分解分析还表明，与城市相比，农村地区的婚姻状况对生育率的负相关程度更强。此外，五岁以下儿童的数量对城市地区的生育率有更大的影响。
本研究发现，埃塞俄比亚城乡生育模式存在显著差异。尽管产妇年龄、教育程度和财富等人口因素在两种环境中都对生育率有影响，但这些关系在性质和程度上有所不同。为了解决这个问题，政策制定者应制定有针对性的生育计划，以满足农村和城市人口的独特需求和挑战。
