Hasan Mostofa Mahmud, Abu Sayem Md, Hossain Bm Sajjad
Department of Business Administration, Khwaja Yunus Ali University, Enayetpur, Shirajgonj, Bangladesh.
Department of Statistics, EXIM Bank Agricultural University Bangladesh, Chapainawabganj, Bangladesh.
Heliyon. 2024 Sep 30;10(19):e38755. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e38755. eCollection 2024 Oct 15.
The primary aim of this study is to identify the most relevant financial inclusion variables influencing gross domestic product (GDP) and to choose the optimal multiple linear regression model to quantify their contribution to economic growth. Finance is essential for every economic activity and financial inclusion is closely related to societal empowerment. It is observed in different nations that financial inclusion variables have a valuable impact on economic growth. For this, secondary data were gathered for this study from the IMF (International Monetary Fund) from 2011 to 2020. Graphical presentations were used to visualize the relationship between financial inclusion variables and economic growth. The most eligible variables and the best model among a collection of models based on empirical data were chosen using a stepwise backward elimination technique using multiple linear regression and model selection criteria. From the graph, it is seen that financial inclusion variables are proportionately related to GDP and the results demonstrate that the most eligible variables of financial inclusion that affect GDP are (1) the number of registered mobile money agent outlets, (2) the number of active mobile money accounts, (3) the number of mobile money transactions, and (4) outstanding balances on active mobile money accounts. These variables have a positive impact on economic growth, and the fitted model measures the more significant contribution to economic growth. As a result, it may be summarized that financial enclosure has to be enhanced for the development of rural and border areas of Bangladesh. This study will assist policymakers, development organizations, and scholars and make knowledgeable findings that will guide long-term improvements to minimize the gap between rich and poor, leading to the improvement of the community's wealth and welfare.
本研究的主要目的是确定影响国内生产总值（GDP）的最相关金融包容性变量，并选择最优多元线性回归模型来量化它们对经济增长的贡献。金融对每一项经济活动都至关重要，而金融包容性与社会赋权密切相关。在不同国家可以观察到，金融包容性变量对经济增长具有重要影响。为此，本研究从国际货币基金组织（IMF）收集了2011年至2020年的二手数据。采用图形展示来直观呈现金融包容性变量与经济增长之间的关系。基于实证数据，使用多元线性回归和模型选择标准的逐步向后消除技术，从一系列模型中选择最符合条件的变量和最佳模型。从图表中可以看出，金融包容性变量与GDP成比例相关，结果表明影响GDP的最符合条件的金融包容性变量为：（1）注册移动货币代理网点数量；（2）活跃移动货币账户数量；（3）移动货币交易数量；（4）活跃移动货币账户的未偿余额。这些变量对经济增长有积极影响，拟合模型衡量了对经济增长更显著的贡献。因此，可以总结出，为了孟加拉国农村和边境地区的发展，必须加强金融覆盖。本研究将帮助政策制定者、发展组织和学者，并得出有见地的结论，这些结论将指导长期改进，以缩小贫富差距，从而改善社区的财富和福利。
