Wiese Frauke, Taillard Nicolas, Balembois Emile, Best Benjamin, Bourgeois Stephane, Campos José, Cordroch Luisa, Djelali Mathilde, Gabert Alexandre, Jacob Adrien, Johnson Elliott, Meyer Sébastien, Munkácsy Béla, Pagliano Lorenzo, Quoilin Sylvain, Roscetti Andrea, Thema Johannes, Thiran Paolo, Toledano Adrien, Vogel Bendix, Zell-Ziegler Carina, Marignac Yves
Department of Sustainable Energy Transition, Europa-Universität Flensburg, Flensburg, Germany.
négaWatt Association, BP 16280 Alixan, 26958, VALENCE Cedex 9, France.
Nat Commun. 2024 Oct 19;15(1):9043. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-53393-0.
A detailed assessment of a low energy demand, 1.5 C compatible pathway is provided for Europe from a bottom-up, country scale modelling perspective. The level of detail enables a clear representation of the potential of sufficiency measures. Results show that by 2050, 50% final energy demand reduction compared to 2019 is possible in Europe, with at least 40% of it attributable to various sufficiency measures across all sectors. This reduction enables a 77% renewable energy share in 2040 and 100% in 2050, with very limited need for imports from outside of Europe and no carbon sequestration technologies. Sufficiency enables increased fairness between countries through the convergence towards a more equitable share of energy service levels. Here we show, that without sufficiency measures, Europe misses the opportunity to transform energy demand leaving considerable pressure on supply side changes combined with unproven carbon removal technologies.
从自下而上的国家层面建模角度出发，对欧洲低能源需求、兼容1.5°C的路径进行了详细评估。详细程度能够清晰呈现充足性措施的潜力。结果表明，到2050年，欧洲与2019年相比最终能源需求有可能减少50%，其中至少40%可归因于所有部门的各种充足性措施。这一减少使得2040年可再生能源份额达到77%，2050年达到100%，从欧洲以外地区进口的需求非常有限，且无需碳封存技术。充足性通过向更公平的能源服务水平份额趋同，实现了国家间更大的公平。我们在此表明，若没有充足性措施，欧洲将错失转变能源需求的机会，给供应侧变化带来巨大压力，同时依赖未经证实的碳去除技术。
