Pickering Bryn, Lombardi Francesco, Pfenninger Stefan
Institute for Environmental Decisions, Department for Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland.
Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management (TPM), Delft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands.
Joule. 2022 Jun 15;6(6):1253-1276. doi: 10.1016/j.joule.2022.05.009.
Disagreements persist on how to design a self-sufficient, carbon-neutral European energy system. To explore the diversity of design options, we develop a high-resolution model of the entire European energy system and produce 441 technically feasible system designs that are within 10% of the optimal economic cost. We show that a wide range of systems based on renewable energy are feasible, with no need to import energy from outside Europe. Model solutions reveal considerable flexibility in the choice and geographical distribution of new infrastructure across the continent. Balanced renewable energy supply can be achieved either with or without mechanisms such as biofuel use, curtailment, and expansion of the electricity network. Trade-offs emerge once specific preferences are imposed. Low biofuel use, for example, requires heat electrification and controlled vehicle charging. This exploration of the impact of preferences on system design options is vital to inform urgent, politically difficult decisions for eliminating fossil fuel imports and achieving European carbon neutrality.
在如何设计一个自给自足、碳中和的欧洲能源系统方面,分歧依然存在。为了探索设计方案的多样性,我们开发了一个涵盖整个欧洲能源系统的高分辨率模型,并生成了441种技术上可行的系统设计,这些设计的经济成本在最优成本的10%以内。我们表明,基于可再生能源的多种系统都是可行的,无需从欧洲以外地区进口能源。模型解决方案显示,在整个欧洲大陆选择新基础设施及其地理分布方面具有相当大的灵活性。无论是否采用生物燃料使用、削减和电网扩展等机制,都可以实现可再生能源的平衡供应。一旦施加特定偏好,就会出现权衡取舍。例如,低生物燃料使用需要热电气化和可控车辆充电。这种对偏好对系统设计方案影响的探索对于为消除化石燃料进口和实现欧洲碳中和做出紧迫且政治上困难的决策至关重要。