Shen Yifan, Shi Xunpeng, Zhao Zhibo, Grafton R Quentin, Yu Jian, Shan Yuli
Department of Economics and Finance, SILC Business School, Shanghai University, Shanghai 201899, China.
Australia-China Relations Institute, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2007, Australia.
PNAS Nexus. 2024 Oct 22;3(10):pgae427. doi: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae427. eCollection 2024 Oct.
The COP28 agreement signals "beginning of the end" of the fossil fuel era, calling on countries to contribute to global efforts to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner. While a quantitative assessment of country's vulnerability in energy transition is a prerequisite for national and international policy makers to ensure a just and inclusive transition, it is notably absent in the existing research. Here, we develop a conceptual framework based on the vulnerability scoping diagram (VSD) method to assess differences in energy transition vulnerability across countries, with a specific focus on the challenges associated with transitioning away from fossil fuels. The resulting energy transition vulnerability index (ETVI) scores reveal that countries in the Global South generally exhibit higher vulnerability in their energy transition compared to those in the Global North, and this gap has widened over the past decade. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the decade-long trend of continuous decline in global energy transition vulnerability. This study also provides two important applications of ETVI scores, aligning them with major global sustainable development agenda. Firstly, we identify substantial differences in the dynamics of transition vulnerability across seven major party groups in the international climate change negotiations and distinguish four energy transition statuses in relation to achieving global climate goals: , , , and . Secondly, we demonstrate crucial synergies between energy transition resilience and the 2030 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
《联合国气候变化框架公约》第二十八次缔约方大会（COP28）达成的协议标志着化石燃料时代“走向终结的开端”，呼吁各国以公正、有序和公平的方式，为全球能源系统摆脱化石燃料的转型努力做出贡献。虽然对各国在能源转型中的脆弱性进行定量评估，是国家和国际政策制定者确保公正和包容性转型的先决条件，但现有研究中明显缺乏这方面内容。在此，我们基于脆弱性范围界定图（VSD）方法开发了一个概念框架，以评估各国在能源转型脆弱性方面的差异，特别关注摆脱化石燃料转型所面临的挑战。由此得出的能源转型脆弱性指数（ETVI）得分显示，与全球北方国家相比，全球南方国家在能源转型中总体上表现出更高的脆弱性，且这一差距在过去十年中有所扩大。此外，新冠疫情扰乱了全球能源转型脆弱性持续下降长达十年的趋势。本研究还提供了ETVI得分的两个重要应用，使其与全球主要可持续发展议程保持一致。首先，我们确定了国际气候变化谈判中七个主要政党集团在转型脆弱性动态方面的显著差异，并区分了与实现全球气候目标相关的四种能源转型状态： ， ， ，以及 。其次，我们展示了能源转型复原力与联合国2030年可持续发展目标（SDGs）之间的关键协同作用。 （注：原文中部分状态表述缺失，已保留原文格式）
