School of Management and Governance, University of New South Wales, Australia.
J R Soc Interface. 2024 Oct;21(219):20240140. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2024.0140. Epub 2024 Oct 23.
Wong and Bartlett explain the Fermi paradox by arguing that neither human nor extra-terrestrial civilizations can escape the time window singularity which, they claim, results from the way in which social characteristics of civilizations follow super-linear growth curves of cities. We question if data at the city level necessarily can lead to conclusions at the civilization level. More specifically, we suggest ways in which learnings from research, foresight, diversity and effective future government might act outside of their model to regulate super-linear growth curves of civilizations, and thus substantively increase the likelihood of civilizations progressing towards higher levels of the Kardashev scale. Moreover, we believe their claimed history of the collapse of terrestrial societies used to evidence their model is difficult to justify. Overall, we cast reasonable doubt on the ability of their proposed model to satisfactorily explain the Fermi paradox.
Wong 和 Bartlett 通过论证指出，人类和外星文明都无法逃脱时间窗口奇点，他们声称，这是由于文明的社会特征遵循城市的超线性增长曲线。我们质疑城市层面的数据是否必然可以得出文明层面的结论。更具体地说，我们提出了一些方法，这些方法可能会从研究、远见、多样性和有效的未来政府中学习，从而规范文明的超线性增长曲线，从而实质性地增加文明向 Kardashev 规模更高水平发展的可能性。此外，我们认为他们声称的用于证明其模型的地球社会崩溃历史很难证明其合理性。总的来说，我们对他们提出的模型能够令人满意地解释费米悖论的能力表示怀疑。
