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基于未确知测度理论的高层建筑火灾风险预警框架。

A fire risk pre-warning framework for high-rise buildings based on unascertained method.

机构信息

School of Architecture Engineering, North China Institute of Science and Technology, Beijing, 101601, China.

School of Project Management, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, 2006, Australia.

出版信息

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2024 Nov;31(52):61912-61926. doi: 10.1007/s11356-024-35396-y. Epub 2024 Oct 25.

Abstract

The growing global interest in preventing and controlling fires in high-rise buildings reflects the increasing significance of this issue today. This research aims to establish an early warning framework for fire risk in high-rise buildings. Firstly, considering the importance of a scientific indicator system for the application of the model, this study combines the event analysis method with the building design fire code to identify 11 key risk factors that have a far-reaching impact on the prevention of fires in high-rise buildings. Based on identifying the risk factors, a high-rise building fire risk warning tree is also established, which scientifically solves the problem of the indicator system of the warning object. Subsequently, in response to the various complex issues arising from the uncertainty of fire occurrence in high-rise buildings, this study adopts the unascertained method to model the fire risk of high-rise buildings for early warning. In addition, the developed methodology was empirically validated through case studies and analyses of empirical data on fire risks in nine representative high-rise buildings. The results of the unascertained method were also compared with the results of the K-means method, from which it was concluded that the unascertained method can predict building fires more accurately. The research results provide a reliable decision support system for fire disaster prevention and control in high-rise buildings.

摘要

全球对预防和控制高层建筑火灾的兴趣日益浓厚,反映出这一问题在当今的重要性日益增加。本研究旨在为高层建筑火灾风险建立一个预警框架。首先,考虑到模型应用的科学指标体系的重要性,本研究将事件分析法与建筑设计防火规范相结合,确定了 11 个对高层建筑火灾预防具有深远影响的关键风险因素。基于风险因素的识别,还建立了高层建筑火灾风险预警树,科学地解决了预警对象指标体系的问题。随后,针对高层建筑火灾发生不确定性所带来的各种复杂问题,本研究采用未确知测度方法对高层建筑火灾风险进行预警建模。此外,通过对 9 栋具有代表性的高层建筑火灾风险的案例研究和实证数据分析,对所提出的方法进行了实证验证。未确知测度方法的结果还与 K-均值方法的结果进行了比较,结论表明未确知测度方法可以更准确地预测建筑物火灾。研究结果为高层建筑火灾预防和控制提供了可靠的决策支持系统。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9ab2/11541298/e5976392e418/11356_2024_35396_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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