School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, China.
PLoS One. 2024 Oct 25;19(10):e0307947. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0307947. eCollection 2024.
Consumption is crucial to individual well-being and national economic development. This study investigates whether high-speed rail (HSR) influences consumption expenditure (CE) and consumption structure (CS) of urban and rural Chinese citizens. Using panel data from 2003 to 2019 and econometric models, this study finds that: (1) HSR significantly increases CE for both urban and rural residents, promotes CS upgrades in rural areas, but inhibits CS upgrades in urban areas. These results remain robust after extensive testing. (2) HSR's impact on urban consumption is relatively focused and singular, whereas its effect on rural consumption is dispersed and extensive. Additionally, the impact of HSR on consumption exhibited significant delays and regional characteristics. (3) Mediation analysis reveals that HSR significantly enhances urban and rural CE and facilitates rural CS upgrades through market, price, and income effects. However, it also triggers housing price increases, impeding urban CS upgrades. This study provides important references for the government to optimize transportation infrastructure investments, promote balanced economic development between urban and rural areas, and enhance residents' well-being.
消费对于个人福祉和国家经济发展至关重要。本研究旨在探讨高速铁路（HSR）是否会影响中国城乡居民的消费支出（CE）和消费结构（CS）。本研究使用了 2003 年至 2019 年的面板数据和计量经济学模型，结果表明：（1）HSR 显著增加了城乡居民的 CE，促进了农村地区 CS 的升级，但抑制了城市地区 CS 的升级。这些结果在经过广泛的测试后仍然稳健。（2）HSR 对城市消费的影响相对集中和单一，而对农村消费的影响则分散且广泛。此外，HSR 对消费的影响具有显著的时滞和区域特征。（3）中介效应分析表明，HSR 通过市场、价格和收入效应显著提高了城乡 CE，并促进了农村 CS 的升级。然而，它也引发了房价上涨，阻碍了城市 CS 的升级。本研究为政府优化交通基础设施投资、促进城乡经济均衡发展和提高居民福祉提供了重要参考。
