Psychology Department, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel.
Department of Counseling and Human Development, Faculty of Education, University of Haifa, Haifa, Israel.
Isr J Health Policy Res. 2024 Oct 29;13(1):63. doi: 10.1186/s13584-024-00644-6.
On October 7th, 2023, a mass terror attack was launched by Hamas militants, which was followed by the Israel-Hamas war. These events constitute a nationwide trauma with major ramifications for public mental health. This article presents an evidence-based model for the prediction of the prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) related to the terrorist attack and the war.
The creation of the model consisted of several steps. Firstly, the Israeli population was divided into six groups based on the intensity, context, and type of traumatic exposure (direct exposure to terror, close proximity to terror, soldiers in combat and support units, intense exposure to rocket attacks, moderate exposure to rocket attacks, and indirectly affected communities), and the population size of each group was assessed using official national databases. Secondly, an estimation of the expected prevalence of PTSD in each of the exposure groups was based on a review of the relevant literature. A random-effects meta-analysis of the prevalence rates was conducted separately per each exposure group. Finally, the predicted number of PTSD causalities in the population was calculated by multiplying the group size and the PTSD prevalence estimation. Based on population size and estimated PTSD prevalence within each exposure category, the model predicts that approximately 5.3% (N = 519,923) of the Israeli population (95% confidence interval, 1.64-9%), may develop PTSD as a result of the terrorist attack and the war.
The predicted number of individuals with PTSD following mass trauma is expected to be considerable. The presented model can assist policymakers, clinicians, and researchers in preparing and devising adequate interventions for the mental health needs of large populations. Moreover, this model can be applied in other instances of mass-trauma exposure.
2023 年 10 月 7 日，哈马斯激进分子发动了一次大规模恐怖袭击，随后爆发了以巴冲突。这些事件构成了一场全国性的创伤事件，对公众心理健康产生了重大影响。本文提出了一个基于证据的模型，用于预测与恐怖袭击和战争相关的创伤后应激障碍（PTSD）的流行率。
该模型的创建包括几个步骤。首先，根据创伤暴露的强度、背景和类型，将以色列人口分为六组（直接暴露于恐怖袭击、近距离接触恐怖袭击、战斗和支援部队的士兵、密集的火箭弹袭击、中度暴露于火箭弹袭击、间接受影响的社区），并使用官方国家数据库评估每个组的人口规模。其次，根据相关文献综述，对每个暴露组中 PTSD 的预期流行率进行估计。对每个暴露组的流行率进行随机效应荟萃分析。最后，通过将群体规模和 PTSD 流行率估计相乘，计算出人群中 PTSD 因果关系的预测数量。基于人口规模和每个暴露类别中的 PTSD 流行率估计，该模型预测，由于恐怖袭击和战争，以色列约有 5.3%（N=519923）的人口（95%置信区间，1.64-9%）可能会患上 PTSD。
预计大量创伤后出现 PTSD 的人数将相当可观。该模型可帮助决策者、临床医生和研究人员为大量人群的心理健康需求做好准备和制定适当的干预措施。此外，该模型可应用于其他大规模创伤暴露的情况。
