Zhang Hao, Du Ping, Yuan Bei, Zhang Yunhui, Chen Juan, Liu Hupeng, Li Aiyang, Wei Yuquan, Xiong Yanna, Zhao Bin
Technical Centre for Soil, Agriculture and Rural Ecology and Environment, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Beijing 100012, China.
Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China.
Environ Health (Wash). 2023 Aug 4;1(3):214-227. doi: 10.1021/envhealth.3c00077. eCollection 2023 Sep 15.
Sensitivity analysis is a valuable method for evaluating the impact of model parameters on health risk characterization, thereby supporting the prediction of critical uncertainty factors. However, limitations arise in terms of cross-disciplinary discussions and in-depth analyses of previous research. To overcome these limitations, a systematic and multifaceted approach was introduced for analyzing the parameter sensitivities in soil contamination risk assessment. This approach specifically targeted the 12 main parameters associated with 65 soil contaminants for health risk assessment, employing detailed authoritative statistics for risk assessment. Screening analysis revealed that identified heavy metals and organics were influenced by key parameters, such as PM, body weight of adults (BW), daily air inhalation rate of adults (DAIR), air exchange rate (ER), and typical soil parameters. PM showed a positive 100% correlation with inorganics and metals, but BW and DAIR exhibited different impacts on different chemicals, with an increase in potential risk observed with higher BW and lower DAIR. Furthermore, incorporating soil parameters in the analysis showed that compact soil could improve the protection against vapor organic compounds for human health. This refined study presents a comprehensive strategy for sensitivity analysis in health risk assessment of soil contamination, thereby offering substantial support for the protection and preservation of human health. A logical framework also was provided for addressing the limitations of sensitivity analysis and facilitating an understanding of the complex relationships between model parameters and the health risk of soil contamination.
敏感性分析是评估模型参数对健康风险特征影响的一种有价值的方法，从而有助于预测关键的不确定性因素。然而，在跨学科讨论和对先前研究的深入分析方面存在局限性。为克服这些局限性，引入了一种系统且多方面的方法来分析土壤污染风险评估中的参数敏感性。该方法专门针对与65种土壤污染物相关的12个主要参数进行健康风险评估，并采用详细的权威统计数据进行风险评估。筛选分析表明，已识别的重金属和有机物受到关键参数的影响，如颗粒物（PM）、成年人的体重（BW）、成年人的每日空气吸入率（DAIR）、空气交换率（ER）以及典型的土壤参数。PM与无机物和金属呈100%的正相关，但BW和DAIR对不同化学物质表现出不同的影响，随着BW升高和DAIR降低，潜在风险增加。此外，在分析中纳入土壤参数表明，紧实土壤可改善对人体健康的挥发性有机化合物防护。这项精细的研究提出了土壤污染健康风险评估中敏感性分析的综合策略，从而为保护和维护人类健康提供了有力支持。还提供了一个逻辑框架，以解决敏感性分析的局限性，并促进对模型参数与土壤污染健康风险之间复杂关系的理解。
