Bandyopadhyay Sayan, Chakraborty Parna
General Medicine, Mother Multispeciality Hospital, Kolkata, IND.
Pulmonary Medicine, Dr. D. Y. Patil Medical College, Hospital & Research Centre, Pune, IND.
Cureus. 2024 Oct 1;16(10):e70662. doi: 10.7759/cureus.70662. eCollection 2024 Oct.
Background Dengue fever is a significant public health issue, particularly in tropical regions such as Purba Medinipur, West Bengal. The mosquito, the primary vector for the dengue virus, thrives in warm and humid environments. Previous studies have shown that climatic variables, including rainfall and temperature, significantly impact mosquito breeding and the transmission dynamics of dengue. This study seeks to explore the correlation between these environmental factors and the seasonal variation of dengue outbreaks in Purba Medinipur from 2017 to 2023. Methods This retrospective study used monthly dengue positivity data obtained from local health authorities, along with meteorological data from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), to analyze the correlation between dengue outbreaks, rainfall, and temperature. Descriptive statistics were calculated, and Pearson correlation analysis was applied to determine relationships between climatic factors and dengue transmission. A polynomial regression model was used to identify seasonal trends, and a 3D scatter plot was generated to visualize the combined effects of rainfall and temperature. Multivariate regression analysis was also employed to assess the simultaneous impact of these environmental factors while controlling for demographic variables. Results The analysis revealed significant seasonal variation, with dengue outbreaks peaking during the monsoon season (July to September). A strong positive correlation was found between monthly rainfall and dengue positivity rates, indicating that higher rainfall levels provide optimal conditions for mosquito breeding. Temperature also played a critical role, with moderate temperatures (30-35°C) being associated with higher positivity rates, while extreme temperatures were less conducive to mosquito activity and virus transmission. The 3D scatter plot showed that the highest dengue positivity rates occurred when both rainfall and temperature were within specific optimal ranges. Conclusions This study underscores the importance of integrating climatic data into dengue surveillance systems to improve the accuracy of outbreak forecasting. By incorporating environmental factors such as rainfall and temperature into predictive models, public health authorities can better anticipate dengue outbreaks and allocate resources more effectively during high-risk periods, such as the monsoon season. Further research is needed to refine these models by including additional factors like urbanization and vector control measures.
登革热是一个重大的公共卫生问题，在西孟加拉邦的普尔巴梅迪尼布尔等热带地区尤为突出。蚊子是登革热病毒的主要传播媒介，在温暖潮湿的环境中繁衍旺盛。以往的研究表明，包括降雨和温度在内的气候变量对蚊子繁殖和登革热的传播动态有显著影响。本研究旨在探讨这些环境因素与2017年至2023年普尔巴梅迪尼布尔登革热疫情季节性变化之间的相关性。方法：这项回顾性研究使用了从当地卫生当局获得的每月登革热阳性数据，以及印度气象部门（IMD）的气象数据，以分析登革热疫情、降雨和温度之间的相关性。计算了描述性统计数据，并应用皮尔逊相关分析来确定气候因素与登革热传播之间的关系。使用多项式回归模型来识别季节性趋势，并生成三维散点图以直观显示降雨和温度的综合影响。还采用多元回归分析来评估这些环境因素在控制人口变量时的同时影响。结果：分析显示出显著的季节性变化，登革热疫情在季风季节（7月至9月）达到高峰。发现月降雨量与登革热阳性率之间存在强烈的正相关，表明较高的降雨量为蚊子繁殖提供了最佳条件。温度也起着关键作用，中等温度（30 - 35°C）与较高的阳性率相关，而极端温度则不利于蚊子活动和病毒传播。三维散点图显示，当降雨和温度都在特定的最佳范围内时，登革热阳性率最高。结论：本研究强调了将气候数据纳入登革热监测系统以提高疫情预测准确性的重要性。通过将降雨和温度等环境因素纳入预测模型，公共卫生当局可以更好地预测登革热疫情，并在高风险时期，如季风季节，更有效地分配资源。需要进一步研究通过纳入城市化和病媒控制措施等其他因素来完善这些模型。
