Zakharova Olga I, Liskova Elena A
Federal Research Center for Virology and Microbiology, Nizhny Novgorod, Russia.
Front Vet Sci. 2024 Oct 22;11:1440408. doi: 10.3389/fvets.2024.1440408. eCollection 2024.
Animal rabies is a viral disease that poses a significant threat to domestic and wild animal populations, with devastating consequences for animal health and human life. Understanding and assessing the risk factors associated with the transmission and persistence of the rabies virus in wild and domestic animal populations is crucial for developing effective strategies to control and mitigate cases. Studies of the spatial and temporal distribution of rabies cases in the Nizhny Novgorod region during 2012-2022 provided epidemiological evidence of the circulation of infection between animals in the presence of vaccination. Among the wild animals in the area, red foxes play a major role in the spread of rabies, accounting for 96.4% of all wild animal cases.
We used spatiotemporal cluster analysis and a negative binomial regression algorithm to study the relationships between animal rabies burden by municipality and a series of environmental and sociodemographic factors.
The spatiotemporal cluster analysis suggests the concentration of wild animal rabies cases in the areas of high fox population density and insufficient vaccination rates. The regression models showed satisfactory performance in explaining the observed distribution of rabies in different animals ( = 0.71, 0.76, and 0.79 in the models for wild, domestic and all animals respectively), with rabies vaccination coverage and fox population density being among the main risk factors.
We believe that this study can provide valuable information for a better understanding of the geographical and temporal patterns of rabies distribution in different animal species, and will provide a basis for the development of density-dependent planning of vaccination campaigns.
动物狂犬病是一种病毒性疾病，对家畜和野生动物种群构成重大威胁，给动物健康和人类生命带来毁灭性后果。了解和评估与狂犬病病毒在野生动物和家畜种群中的传播及持续存在相关的风险因素，对于制定控制和减轻病例的有效策略至关重要。对2012年至2022年下诺夫哥罗德地区狂犬病病例的时空分布研究，提供了在有疫苗接种情况下动物间感染传播的流行病学证据。在该地区的野生动物中，赤狐在狂犬病传播中起主要作用，占所有野生动物病例的96.4%。
我们使用时空聚类分析和负二项回归算法，研究按市政当局划分的动物狂犬病负担与一系列环境和社会人口因素之间的关系。
时空聚类分析表明，野生动物狂犬病病例集中在赤狐种群密度高且疫苗接种率不足的地区。回归模型在解释不同动物中观察到的狂犬病分布方面表现良好（分别在野生动物、家畜和所有动物模型中的R² = 0.71、0.76和0.79），狂犬病疫苗接种覆盖率和赤狐种群密度是主要风险因素。
我们认为，这项研究可为更好地了解不同动物物种中狂犬病分布的地理和时间模式提供有价值的信息，并将为制定基于密度的疫苗接种运动规划提供依据。
