Lv Miao-Miao, Sun Xiang-Dong, Jin Zhen, Wu Hai-Rong, Li Ming-Tao, Sun Gui-Quan, Pei Xin, Wu Yu-Tong, Liu Ping, Li Li, Zhang Juan
Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China.
Complex Systems and Data Science Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education, Taiyuan 030006, China.
One Health. 2023 Aug 16;17:100615. doi: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2023.100615. eCollection 2023 Dec.
Rabies is an acute zoonotic infectious disease caused by rabies virus. In 2015, the World Health Organization proposed the goal of eliminating dog-induced human rabies by 2030. In response to this goal positively, China has been dedicated to the control and elimination of rabies mainly caused by dogs, for nearly 10 years. By applying infectious disease dynamics, in this paper, we establish a dog-human rabies transmission model to forecast future epidemic trends of rabies, assess whether the goal of eliminating dog-induced human rabies cases in China can be achieved in 2030, and further evaluate and suggest the follow-up sustained preventive measures after the elimination of human rabies. By analyzing and simulating above dynamic model, it is concluded that rabies has been well controlled in China in recent years, but dog-induced human rabies cannot be eliminated by 2030 according to current situation. In addition, we propose to improve rabies control efforts by increasing the immunization coverage rate of rural domestic dogs, controlling the number of stray dogs and preventing the import of rabies virus in wild animals. Immunization coverage rate of rural domestic dogs which is currently less than 10% is far from requirement, and it needs to reach 50%-60% to meet the goal of 2030. Since it is difficult to immunize stray dogs, we suggest to control the number of stray dogs below 15.27 million to achieve the goal. If the goal of eliminating human rabies is reached in 2030, the essential immunization coverage needs to be maintained for 18 years to reduce the number of canine rabies cases to zero. Lastly, to prevent transmission of rabies virus from wild animals to dogs, the thresholds of the number of dogs and the immunization coverage rate of dogs after eliminating canine rabies cases are also discussed.
狂犬病是由狂犬病毒引起的一种急性人畜共患传染病。2015年，世界卫生组织提出到2030年消除犬传人狂犬病的目标。为积极响应这一目标，近10年来中国一直致力于控制和消除主要由犬引起的狂犬病。本文应用传染病动力学，建立了犬传人狂犬病传播模型，以预测狂犬病未来的流行趋势，评估中国在2030年能否实现消除犬传人狂犬病病例的目标，并进一步评估和提出消除人狂犬病后的后续持续预防措施。通过对上述动力学模型进行分析和模拟，得出近年来中国狂犬病已得到较好控制，但根据目前情况，犬传人狂犬病在2030年无法消除的结论。此外，我们建议通过提高农村家犬免疫覆盖率、控制流浪犬数量以及防止野生动物狂犬病病毒传入等方式来加强狂犬病防控工作。目前农村家犬免疫覆盖率不足10%，远未达到要求，需要达到50%-60%才能实现2030年的目标。由于对流浪犬进行免疫较为困难，我们建议将流浪犬数量控制在1527万以下以实现目标。如果在2030年实现消除人狂犬病的目标，需要维持基本免疫覆盖率18年，以使犬狂犬病病例数降至零。最后，为防止狂犬病病毒从野生动物传播至犬类，还讨论了消除犬狂犬病病例后犬的数量阈值和犬免疫覆盖率。
