Risk Management Department, Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance Company, Uchisaiwai-cho 2-2-2, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, 100-0011, Japan.
Integrated Risk Management Division, Tokyo Star Bank, Ltd., Akasaka 2-3-5, Minato-ku, Tokyo, 107-8480, Japan.
J Math Biol. 2024 Nov 6;89(6):59. doi: 10.1007/s00285-024-02150-4.
The purpose of this study is to construct a mortality model that reasonably explains survival curves and mortality rates in terms of the decline in biological function, which is the phenomenon of ageing. In this model, an individual organism is regarded as a collection of subsystems, and for each subsystem, the model defines human mortality by introducing positive self-repair mechanisms and stochastically generated negative external shocks. The probability density function of the time of death is derived explicitly, and the model parameters are estimated using life tables from Japan and the UK, which demonstrate the existence of multiple parameter sets that fit well with the observed data.
本研究旨在构建一个死亡率模型，该模型能够合理地解释生物功能下降（即衰老现象）方面的生存曲线和死亡率。在该模型中，个体生物被视为子系统的集合，对于每个子系统，模型通过引入积极的自我修复机制和随机产生的负面外部冲击来定义人类死亡率。明确推导出死亡时间的概率密度函数，并使用来自日本和英国的生命表估计模型参数，结果表明存在多个与观察数据拟合良好的参数集。
