Weitz J S, Fraser H B
Department of Physics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2001 Dec 18;98(26):15383-6. doi: 10.1073/pnas.261228098.
We propose a stochastic model of aging to explain deviations from exponential growth in mortality rates commonly observed in empirical studies. Mortality rate plateaus are explained as a generic consequence of considering death in terms of first passage times for processes undergoing a random walk with drift. Simulations of populations with age-dependent distributions of viabilities agree with a wide array of experimental results. The influence of cohort size is well accounted for by the stochastic nature of the model.
我们提出了一个衰老的随机模型,以解释实证研究中常见的死亡率偏离指数增长的现象。死亡率平稳期被解释为将死亡视为具有漂移的随机游走过程的首次通过时间的一般结果。具有年龄依赖性生存能力分布的种群模拟结果与大量实验结果相符。该模型的随机性质很好地解释了队列规模的影响。