Witte Erich H, Ponocny Ivo
Psychological Institute, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany.
Faculty of Psychology, Sigmund Freud University Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Front Psychol. 2024 Oct 24;15:1377336. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2024.1377336. eCollection 2024.
After a brief consideration of the development of meta-analyses as a joint discussion of results from a research area across development stages 0, 1, 2, it is concluded that the present form 2.0 is unsuitable to serve as a basis for theory building. Further development of this tool into a meta-analysis 3.0 is necessary for this purpose which requires the validity of the independent variables in the primary studies, the reduction of the error variance of the dependent variables, a stability of the effects over the primary studies and a quantitative comparison between observed and predicted effects in the primary studies. In the current meta-analyses 2.0, a concrete single-case approach creates the impression that mainly everyday ideas are investigated, which one would like to generalize to a population of other conditions. Furthermore, the results of the existing meta-analyses are either homogeneous and very small or heterogeneous. Meta-analysis 2.0 searches for the instability of the measurements under a specific topic with methods of induction. The procedure of a meta-analysis 3.0 is described in general and carried out hypothetically and with an empirical example. It searches for the stability of quantitative reconstructions of data over different topics with the method of abduction. The conclusion can be summarized as that meta-analysis 3.0 is indispensable as a tool for theorizing, and theorizing presupposes meta-analysis 3.0. The link between this interdependence is abduction in contrast to induction as a research strategy.
在简要考虑了元分析作为对研究领域跨越0、1、2发展阶段的结果进行联合讨论的发展情况后,得出的结论是,目前的2.0形式不适宜作为理论构建的基础。为此,有必要将该工具进一步发展为元分析3.0,这需要初级研究中自变量的有效性、因变量误差方差的减少、初级研究中效应的稳定性以及初级研究中观察到的效应与预测效应之间的定量比较。在当前的元分析2.0中,具体的单案例方法给人的印象是,主要研究的是日常想法,并希望将其推广到其他条件的人群中。此外,现有元分析的结果要么是同质且非常小,要么是异质的。元分析2.0使用归纳法在特定主题下寻找测量的不稳定性。元分析3.0的程序进行了总体描述,并通过一个实证例子进行了假设性实施。它使用溯因法在不同主题中寻找数据定量重建的稳定性。结论可以概括为,元分析3.0作为一种理论化工具是不可或缺的,而理论化以元分析3.0为前提。这种相互依存关系之间的联系是溯因法,与作为研究策略的归纳法形成对比。