Kamruzzaman Mohammad, Shariot-Ullah Md, Islam Rafiqul, Amin Mohammad Golam Mostofa, Islam Hossain Mohammad Touhidul, Ahmed Sharif, Yildiz Shabista, Muktadir Abdul, Shahid Shamsuddin
Farm Machinery and Postharvest Technology Division, Bangladesh Rice Research Institute, Gazipur, 1701, Bangladesh.
Department of Irrigation and Water Management, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, 2202, Bangladesh.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2024 Dec;31(56):64596-64627. doi: 10.1007/s11356-024-35487-w. Epub 2024 Nov 14.
This study evaluates the potential impacts of climate change on Bangladesh by analyzing 19 bioclimatic indicators based on temperature and precipitation. Data from 18 bias-corrected CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) were used, covering four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)-SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585-across three future timeframes: near-term (2015-2044), mid-term (2045-2074), and long-term (2075-2100). Under the high-emission SSP585 scenario, average temperatures are projected to rise by up to 3.76 °C, and annual precipitation could increase by 52.6%, reaching up to 3446.38 mm by the end of the century. The maximum temperature (Bio5) could reach 32.91 °C, while the minimum temperature (Bio6) might rise by 4.43 °C, particularly during winter. Precipitation seasonality (Bio15) is projected to increase by as much as 7.9% in the northwest, indicating heightened variability between wet and dry seasons. The diurnal temperature range (Bio2) is expected to decrease by up to - 1.3 °C, signifying reduced nighttime cooling, which could exacerbate heat stress. Significant reductions in temperature seasonality (Bio4) are forecast for the northeast, with notable declines in isothermality (Bio3) under SSP585, pointing to increased climatic extremes. These climatic shifts pose severe risks to agricultural productivity, water resource availability, and biodiversity, particularly in flood-prone regions. The findings highlight the need for urgent adaptation measures, including improved flood management systems, efficient water resource use, and climate-resilient agricultural practices. By providing robust region-specific projections, this study offers critical insights for policymakers and stakeholders to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change and safeguard environmental and economic sustainability in Bangladesh.
本研究通过分析基于温度和降水的19个生物气候指标，评估气候变化对孟加拉国的潜在影响。使用了来自18个经偏差校正的CMIP6全球气候模型（GCMs）的数据，涵盖四个共享社会经济路径（SSPs）——SSP126、SSP245、SSP370和SSP585——跨越三个未来时间框架：近期（2015 - 2044年）、中期（2045 - 2074年）和长期（2075 - 2100年）。在高排放的SSP585情景下，预计平均气温将上升高达3.76°C，到本世纪末年降水量可能增加52.6%，达到3446.38毫米。最高温度（Bio5）可能达到32.91°C，而最低温度（Bio6）可能上升4.43°C，特别是在冬季。预计西北部的降水季节性（Bio15）将增加多达7.9%，表明干湿季节之间的变率加大。日较差（Bio2）预计将下降高达-1.3°C，这意味着夜间降温减少，可能加剧热应激。预计东北部的温度季节性（Bio4）将大幅降低，在SSP585情景下等温性（Bio3）将显著下降，这表明气候极端情况增加。这些气候变化对农业生产力、水资源可用性和生物多样性构成严重风险，特别是在易受洪水影响的地区。研究结果强调了迫切需要采取适应措施，包括改善洪水管理系统、高效利用水资源和适应气候变化的农业实践。通过提供可靠的区域特定预测，本研究为政策制定者和利益相关者提供了关键见解，以减轻气候变化的不利影响，并保障孟加拉国的环境和经济可持续性。
