Lynch Kathleen A, Abramson David M, Merdjanoff Alexis A
Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences, School of Global Public Health, New York University, New York, NY, USA.
Int J Disaster Risk Reduct. 2024 Jan;100. doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.104220. Epub 2023 Dec 22.
Risk perceptions of extreme weather events have been explored extensively through the lens of emergency preparation, but the influence of pre-storm risk perceptions on resilience and recovery trajectories are understudied. The objective of this qualitative analysis is to explore 1) the factors which shape residents' perception of risk prior to an event, and 2) how these factors contribute to 'sensemaking,' after the storm to influence experiences of recovery.
Eight focus groups and ten in-depth interviews (N = 38) from the Hurricane Sandy Child Impact Study were analyzed using grounded theory. The sample comprised of New Jersey residents who experienced housing damage or displacement during Hurricane Sandy. Verbatim transcripts were coded using iterative phases of open, axial, and selective coding.
Grounded theory analysis identified three major themes: 1) Local ecological knowledge and place-based intergenerational memory shaped respondents' initial risk perceptions, their framing of the event, and its consequences; 2) Unclear institutional decision-making complicated recovery planning and actions; 3) Inaccurate pre-storm risk perceptions led to traumatic memories and decreased self-efficacy in managing recovery. This mismatch in perception and outcome led participants to feel that they had been ill-informed before and during the storm and created skepticism of government recommendations and services during the recovery phase.
Local ecological knowledge and intergenerational memory are critical factors that shape pre-storm risk perception and can subsequently influence trust in officials, service utilization, and perceptions of recovery. Themes identified in this analysis suggest the need for future longitudinal research to investigate the extent to which pre-storm risk perception is predictive of post-disaster recovery and resilience.
通过应急准备的视角，人们对极端天气事件的风险认知进行了广泛研究，但风暴前风险认知对恢复力和恢复轨迹的影响却鲜有研究。本定性分析的目的是探讨：1）塑造居民在事件发生前风险认知的因素；2）这些因素如何在风暴过后促成“意义建构”，进而影响恢复体验。
运用扎根理论分析了“桑迪飓风儿童影响研究”中的8个焦点小组和10次深度访谈（N = 38）。样本包括在桑迪飓风中遭受房屋损坏或流离失所的新泽西居民。逐字记录稿通过开放编码、主轴编码和选择性编码的迭代阶段进行编码。
扎根理论分析确定了三个主要主题：1）当地生态知识和基于地点的代际记忆塑造了受访者最初的风险认知、对事件的框架构建及其后果；2）不明确的机构决策使恢复规划和行动变得复杂；3）不准确的风暴前风险认知导致创伤记忆，并降低了管理恢复过程的自我效能感。这种认知与结果的不匹配导致参与者感到在风暴前和风暴期间他们得到的信息不准确，并在恢复阶段对政府的建议和服务产生怀疑。
当地生态知识和代际记忆是塑造风暴前风险认知的关键因素，随后可能影响对官员的信任、服务利用以及恢复认知。本分析中确定的主题表明，未来需要进行纵向研究，以调查风暴前风险认知对灾后恢复和恢复力的预测程度。
