Bridging theory and data: A computational workflow for cultural evolution.

Cultural evolution applies evolutionary concepts and tools to explain the change of culture over time. Despite advances in both theoretical and empirical methods, the connections between cultural evolutionary theory and evidence are often vague, limiting progress. Theoretical models influence empirical research but rarely guide data collection and analysis in logical and transparent ways. Theoretical models themselves are often too abstract to apply to specific empirical contexts and guide statistical inference. To help bridge this gap, we outline a quality-assurance computational workflow that starts from generative models of empirical phenomena and logically connects statistical estimates to both theory and real-world explanatory goals. We emphasize and demonstrate validation of the workflow using synthetic data. Using the interplay between conformity, migration, and cultural diversity as a case study, we present coded and repeatable examples of directed acyclic graphs, tailored agent-based simulations, a probabilistic transmission model for longitudinal data, and an approximate Bayesian computation model for cross-sectional data. We discuss the assumptions, opportunities, and pitfalls of different approaches to generative modeling and show how each can be used to improve data analysis depending on the structure of available data and the depth of theoretical understanding. Throughout, we highlight the significance of ethnography and of collecting basic cultural and demographic information about study populations and call for more emphasis on logical and theory-driven workflows as part of science reform.