TICE lab, Department of Human Behavior, Ecology, and Culture, Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology, Leipzig, Germany.
Meertens Institute, The Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
PLoS Comput Biol. 2023 Jul 13;19(7):e1011297. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011297. eCollection 2023 Jul.
Empirical work has shown that human cultural transmission can be heavily influenced by population age structure. We aim to explore the role of such age structure in shaping the cultural composition of a population when cultural transmission occurs in an unbiased way. In particular, we are interested in understanding the effect induced by the interplay between age structure and the cultural transmission process by allowing cultural transmission from individuals within a limited age range only. To this end we develop an age-structured cultural transmission model and find that age-structured and non age-structured populations evolving through unbiased transmission possess very similar cultural compositions (at a single point in time) at the population and sample level if the copy pool consists of a sufficiently large fraction of the population. If, however, an age constraint-a structural constraint restricting the pool of potential role models to individuals of a limited age range- exists, the cultural compositions of age-structured and non age-structured population show stark differences. This may have drastic consequences for our ability to correctly analyse cultural data sets. Rejections of tests of neutrality, blind to age structure and, importantly, the interaction between age structure and cultural transmission, are only indicative of biased transmission if it is known a priori that there are no or only weak age constraints acting on the pool of role models. As this knowledge is rarely available for specific empirical case studies we develop a generative inference approach based on our age-structured cultural transmission model and machine learning techniques. We show that in some circumstances it is possible to simultaneously infer the characteristics of the age structure, the nature of the transmission process, and the interplay between them from observed samples of cultural variants. Our results also point to hard limits on inference from population-level data at a single point in time, regardless of the approach used.
实证研究表明,人类文化传播会受到人口年龄结构的强烈影响。我们旨在探讨当文化传播是无偏差的时候,这种年龄结构在塑造人口的文化构成方面所起的作用。具体而言,我们有兴趣了解年龄结构和文化传播过程之间的相互作用所产生的影响,方法是仅允许在有限年龄范围内的个体进行文化传播。为此,我们开发了一个年龄结构文化传播模型,并发现如果复制池由足够大的人口比例组成,那么通过无偏差传播进化的年龄结构和非年龄结构种群在人口和样本水平上具有非常相似的文化构成(在单一时间点上)。然而,如果存在年龄限制——一种将潜在榜样池限制在有限年龄范围内的结构限制,那么年龄结构和非年龄结构种群的文化构成就会显示出明显的差异。这可能对我们正确分析文化数据集的能力产生重大影响。如果事先不知道对榜样池没有或只有较弱的年龄限制,那么对中性测试的拒绝——对年龄结构和重要的是年龄结构与文化传播之间的相互作用的盲目拒绝——仅表明存在有偏差的传播。由于这种知识对于特定的实证案例研究很少可用,我们根据我们的年龄结构文化传播模型和机器学习技术开发了一种生成推理方法。我们表明,在某些情况下,从观察到的文化变体样本中,有可能同时推断年龄结构的特征、传播过程的性质以及它们之间的相互作用。我们的结果还指出,无论使用哪种方法,从单一时间点的人口水平数据进行推断都存在硬性限制。