Levy V
Demography. 1986 Feb;23(1):13-30.
The annual birth cycle in rural Egypt peaks in December and has two distinguishable minima in June and September. This pattern bears a striking inverse resemblance to the seasonal movements of employment and wages. Infant and child mortality and marriage also display stable, though different seasonal patterns. The paper explores whether the correlation between labor demand, mortality events and fertility reflect some causal behavioral relationship. It is shown that the probability of a birth is lower in months with high opportunity cost of time. Direct replacement is a significant phenomenon in rural Egypt and it occurs fairly quickly.
埃及农村的年度生育周期在12月达到峰值，在6月和9月有两个明显的低谷。这种模式与就业和工资的季节性变动呈现出惊人的反向相似性。婴儿和儿童死亡率以及婚姻也呈现出稳定但不同的季节性模式。本文探讨劳动力需求、死亡事件和生育率之间的相关性是否反映了某种因果行为关系。研究表明，在时间机会成本高的月份出生的概率较低。直接替代在埃及农村是一个显著现象，而且发生得相当快。
