McDonald J
Demography. 1979 Nov;16(4):575-601.
The relationship between classical demographic deterministic forecasting models, stochastic structural econometric models and time series models is discussed. Final equation autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models for Australian total live-births are constructed. Particular attention is given to the problem of transforming the time series to stationarity (and Gaussianity) and the properties of the forecasts are analyzed. Final form transfer function models linking births to females in the reproductive age groups are also constructed and a comparison of actual forecast performance using the various models is made. Long-run future forecasts are generated and compared with available projections based on the deterministic cohort model after which some policy implications of the analysis are considered.
讨论了经典人口统计学确定性预测模型、随机结构计量经济学模型和时间序列模型之间的关系。构建了澳大利亚总出生人数的最终方程自回归移动平均（ARMA）模型。特别关注将时间序列转换为平稳性（和高斯性）的问题，并分析了预测的属性。还构建了将出生人数与育龄组女性联系起来的最终形式传递函数模型，并对使用各种模型的实际预测性能进行了比较。生成了长期未来预测，并与基于确定性队列模型的可用预测进行了比较，之后考虑了该分析的一些政策含义。
