Stabilising CO concentration as a channel for global disaster risk mitigation.

We investigate the influence of anthropogenic concentration fluctuations on the likelihood of climate-related disasters. We calibrate annual incidence rates against global disasters and growth spanning from 1960 to 2022 based on a dynamic panel logit model. We also study the sensitivity of disaster incidence to stochastic carbon dynamics consistent with IPCC-projected climate outcomes for 2100. The key insight is that present and lagged growth contains valuable information about the likelihood of future disaster events. We further show that lowering carbon stock uncertainty by dampening the persistence or the variability of concentration has a first-order impact on mitigating expected disaster risk.