Lu Saite, Tambakis Demosthenes
Emmanuel College, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Pembroke College, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Sci Rep. 2024 Nov 24;14(1):29120. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-79437-5.
We investigate the influence of anthropogenic concentration fluctuations on the likelihood of climate-related disasters. We calibrate annual incidence rates against global disasters and growth spanning from 1960 to 2022 based on a dynamic panel logit model. We also study the sensitivity of disaster incidence to stochastic carbon dynamics consistent with IPCC-projected climate outcomes for 2100. The key insight is that present and lagged growth contains valuable information about the likelihood of future disaster events. We further show that lowering carbon stock uncertainty by dampening the persistence or the variability of concentration has a first-order impact on mitigating expected disaster risk.
我们研究了人为浓度波动对与气候相关灾害可能性的影响。我们基于动态面板逻辑模型，校准了1960年至2022年期间全球灾害和增长的年发生率。我们还研究了灾害发生率对与政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）预测的2100年气候结果一致的随机碳动态的敏感性。关键的见解是，当前和滞后的增长包含有关未来灾害事件可能性的宝贵信息。我们进一步表明，通过抑制浓度的持续性或变异性来降低碳储量不确定性，对减轻预期灾害风险具有一阶影响。
