Möller Tessa, Högner Annika Ernest, Schleussner Carl-Friedrich, Bien Samuel, Kitzmann Niklas H, Lamboll Robin D, Rogelj Joeri, Donges Jonathan F, Rockström Johan, Wunderling Nico
Energy, Climate and Environment Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany.
Nat Commun. 2024 Aug 1;15(1):6192. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-49863-0.
Under current emission trajectories, temporarily overshooting the Paris global warming limit of 1.5 °C is a distinct possibility. Permanently exceeding this limit would substantially increase the probability of triggering climate tipping elements. Here, we investigate the tipping risks associated with several policy-relevant future emission scenarios, using a stylised Earth system model of four interconnected climate tipping elements. We show that following current policies this century would commit to a 45% tipping risk by 2300 (median, 10-90% range: 23-71%), even if temperatures are brought back to below 1.5 °C. We find that tipping risk by 2300 increases with every additional 0.1 °C of overshoot above 1.5 °C and strongly accelerates for peak warming above 2.0 °C. Achieving and maintaining at least net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2100 is paramount to minimise tipping risk in the long term. Our results underscore that stringent emission reductions in the current decade are critical for planetary stability.
在当前的排放轨迹下，暂时超过《巴黎协定》设定的1.5°C全球变暖限制是完全有可能的。而永久性地超过这一限制将大幅增加触发气候临界点的可能性。在此，我们使用一个由四个相互关联的气候临界点组成的简化地球系统模型，研究了与若干与政策相关的未来排放情景相关的临界点风险。我们表明，按照本世纪目前的政策，到2300年将面临45%的临界点风险（中位数，10 - 90%范围：23 - 71%），即使温度恢复到1.5°C以下。我们发现，到2300年，每超过1.5°C额外升温0.1°C，临界点风险就会增加，且在峰值变暖超过2.0°C时急剧加速。到2100年实现并维持至少净零温室气体排放对于长期将临界点风险降至最低至关重要。我们的结果强调，当前十年严格减排对地球稳定至关重要。
