Nordhaus William D
Department of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520-8268
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2017 Feb 14;114(7):1518-1523. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1609244114. Epub 2017 Jan 31.
The social cost of carbon (SCC) is a central concept for understanding and implementing climate change policies. This term represents the economic cost caused by an additional ton of carbon dioxide emissions or its equivalent. The present study presents updated estimates based on a revised DICE model (Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy). The study estimates that the SCC is $31 per ton of CO in 2010 US$ for the current period (2015). For the central case, the real SCC grows at 3% per year over the period to 2050. The paper also compares the estimates with those from other sources.
碳的社会成本(SCC)是理解和实施气候变化政策的核心概念。该术语代表额外一吨二氧化碳排放或其等效物所造成的经济成本。本研究基于修订后的DICE模型(气候与经济动态综合模型)给出了最新估计。该研究估计,当前时期(2015年)碳的社会成本按2010年美元计算为每吨31美元。在核心情形下,到2050年期间实际碳的社会成本每年增长3%。本文还将这些估计与其他来源的估计进行了比较。