Tan Trevor Wei Kiat, Nguyen Kim-Ngan, Zhang Chen, Kong Ru, Cheng Susan F, Ji Fang, Chong Joanna Su Xian, Yi Chong Eddie Jun, Venketasubramanian Narayanaswamy, Orban Csaba, Chee Michael W L, Chen Christopher, Zhou Juan Helen, Yeo B T Thomas
Centre for Sleep and Cognition & Centre for Translational MR Research, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore.
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, National University of Singapore, Singapore.
bioRxiv. 2024 Nov 19:2024.11.16.623903. doi: 10.1101/2024.11.16.623903.
Brain age is a powerful marker of brain health. Furthermore, brain age models are trained on large datasets, thus giving them a potential advantage in predicting outcomes - much like the success of finetuning large language models for specific applications. However, it is also well-accepted in machine learning that models trained to directly predict specific outcomes (i.e., direct models) often perform better than those trained on surrogate outcomes. Therefore, despite their much larger training data, it is unclear whether brain age models outperform direct models in predicting specific brain health outcomes. Here, we compare large-scale brain age models and direct models for predicting specific health outcomes in the context of Alzheimer's Disease (AD) dementia. Using anatomical T1 scans from three continents (N = 1,848), we find that direct models outperform brain age models without finetuning. Finetuned brain age models yielded similar performance as direct models, but importantly, did not outperform direct models although the brain age models were pretrained on 1000 times more data than the direct models: N = 53,542 vs N = 50. Overall, our results do not discount brain age as a useful marker of general brain health. However, in this era of large-scale brain age models, our results suggest that small-scale, targeted approaches for extracting specific brain health markers still hold significant value.
脑龄是脑健康的一个有力指标。此外,脑龄模型是在大型数据集上训练的,因此在预测结果方面具有潜在优势——这与针对特定应用对大型语言模型进行微调的成功情况非常相似。然而,在机器学习领域也普遍认为,训练用于直接预测特定结果的模型(即直接模型)通常比基于替代结果训练的模型表现更好。因此,尽管脑龄模型的训练数据要多得多,但尚不清楚在预测特定脑健康结果方面,脑龄模型是否优于直接模型。在此,我们在阿尔茨海默病(AD)痴呆症的背景下,比较了用于预测特定健康结果的大规模脑龄模型和直接模型。使用来自三大洲的解剖学T1扫描数据(N = 1848),我们发现未经微调的情况下,直接模型的表现优于脑龄模型。经过微调的脑龄模型与直接模型的表现相似,但重要的是,尽管脑龄模型的预训练数据比直接模型多1000倍(N = 53542 对 N = 50),但并未超过直接模型。总体而言,我们的结果并不否定脑龄作为一般脑健康有用指标的作用。然而,在这个大规模脑龄模型的时代,我们的结果表明,用于提取特定脑健康标志物的小规模、有针对性的方法仍然具有重要价值。