Ghomsi Franck Eitel Kemgang, Nyberg Björn, Raj Roshin P, Bonaduce Antonio, Abiodun Babatunde J, Johannessen Ola M
Deutsches Geodätisches Forschungsinstitut, Technische Universität München (DGFI-TUM), Munich, Germany.
Nansen-Tutu Centre for Marine Environmental Research, Department Oceanography, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
Sci Rep. 2024 Nov 28;14(1):29551. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-80748-w.
The Gulf of Guinea (GoG) is highly vulnerable to sea level rise, with projections indicating a significant increase in permanently inundated land by 2100, ranging from 1,458.1 to 4,331.7 km. This study evaluates the severity of potential coastal inundation in the GoG by comparing sea level rise projections from eight reliable CMIP6 models with historical sea surface height (SSH) data from 1993 to 2015 and current onshore topography. Eight model simulations were selected based on their accuracy in reproducing sea level variability in the Tropical Atlantic and the GoG, and their consistency in reflecting the one-month connection lag between equatorial-driven waves and Kelvin Coastal Trapped Waves (CTWs) along the GoG, critical for predicting regional ocean dynamics. Our findings indicate that this connection lag will remain consistent over time. Under high-emission scenarios, up to 95% of coastal areas could be inundated, potentially displacing 2 million people posing a socio-economic shock, given the region's low GDP and heavy reliance on fisheries. The loss of cultural heritage and livelihoods further compounds the challenges. These findings emphasize the urgent need for targeted adaptation strategies and robust early warning systems, in line with the UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 13 (Climate Action) and SDG 14 (Life Below Water). This study offers a precise and regionally relevant assessment of future risks, providing a foundation for informed policy interventions to mitigate the impacts of climate change and protect vulnerable communities in the GoG.
几内亚湾极易受到海平面上升的影响，预测表明到2100年，永久淹没土地将大幅增加，范围在1458.1至4331.7公里之间。本研究通过将八个可靠的CMIP6模型的海平面上升预测与1993年至2015年的历史海面高度（SSH）数据以及当前的陆上地形进行比较，评估了几内亚湾潜在海岸淹没的严重程度。基于它们在再现热带大西洋和几内亚湾海平面变化方面的准确性，以及在反映赤道驱动波与沿几内亚湾的开尔文海岸捕获波（CTWs）之间的一个月连接滞后方面的一致性，选择了八个模型模拟，这对于预测区域海洋动力学至关重要。我们的研究结果表明，这种连接滞后将随时间保持一致。在高排放情景下，高达95%的沿海地区可能被淹没，鉴于该地区国内生产总值较低且严重依赖渔业，这可能使200万人流离失所，带来社会经济冲击。文化遗产和生计的丧失进一步加剧了这些挑战。这些研究结果强调了迫切需要制定有针对性的适应战略和强大的早期预警系统，这符合联合国可持续发展目标（SDGs），特别是可持续发展目标13（气候行动）和可持续发展目标14（水下生物）。本研究对未来风险进行了精确且与区域相关的评估，为明智的政策干预提供了基础，以减轻气候变化的影响并保护几内亚湾的脆弱社区。
