文献检索文档翻译深度研究
Suppr Zotero 插件Zotero 插件
邀请有礼套餐&价格历史记录

新学期,新优惠

限时优惠:9月1日-9月22日

30天高级会员仅需29元

1天体验卡首发特惠仅需5.99元

了解详情
不再提醒
插件&应用
Suppr Zotero 插件Zotero 插件浏览器插件Mac 客户端Windows 客户端微信小程序
高级版
套餐订阅购买积分包
AI 工具
文献检索文档翻译深度研究
关于我们
关于 Suppr公司介绍联系我们用户协议隐私条款
关注我们

Suppr 超能文献

核心技术专利:CN118964589B侵权必究
粤ICP备2023148730 号-1Suppr @ 2025

通过连接函数和概率图形模型在疾病预测模拟中对社会状况进行机理建模:以艾滋病为例

Mechanistic modeling of social conditions in disease-prediction simulations via copulas and probabilistic graphical models: HIV case study.

作者信息

Khosheghbal Amir, Haas Peter J, Gopalappa Chaitra

机构信息

Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, USA.

Manning College of Information and Computer Sciences, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, USA.

出版信息

Health Care Manag Sci. 2025 Mar;28(1):28-49. doi: 10.1007/s10729-024-09694-3. Epub 2024 Dec 2.


DOI:10.1007/s10729-024-09694-3
PMID:39621234
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11976357/
Abstract

As social and economic conditions are key determinants of HIV, the United States 'National HIV/AIDS Strategy (NHAS)', in addition to care and treatment, aims to address mental health, unemployment, food insecurity, and housing instability, as part of its strategic plan for the 'Ending the HIV Epidemic' initiative. Although mechanistic models of HIV play a key role in evaluating intervention strategies, social conditions are typically not part of the modeling framework. Challenges include the unavailability of coherent statistical data for social conditions and behaviors. We developed a method, combining undirected graphical modeling with copula methods, to integrate disparate data sources, to estimate joint probability distributions for social conditions and behaviors. We incorporated these in a national-level network model, Progression and Transmission of HIV (PATH 4.0), to simulate behaviors as functions of social conditions and HIV transmissions as a function of behaviors. As a demonstration for the potential applications of such a model, we conducted two hypothetical what-if intervention analyses to estimate the impact of an ideal 100% efficacious intervention strategy. The first analysis modeled care behavior (using viral suppression as proxy) as a function of depression, neighborhood, housing, poverty, education, insurance, and employment status. The second modeled sexual behaviors (number of partners and condom-use) as functions of employment, housing, poverty, and education status, among persons who exchange sex. HIV transmissions and disease progression were then simulated as functions of behaviors to estimate incidence reductions. Social determinants are key drivers of many infectious and non-infectious diseases. Our work enables the development of decision support tools to holistically evaluate the syndemics of health and social inequity.

摘要

由于社会和经济状况是艾滋病毒的关键决定因素,美国的《国家艾滋病毒/艾滋病战略》(NHAS)除了关注护理和治疗外,还旨在解决心理健康、失业、粮食不安全和住房不稳定等问题,作为其“终结艾滋病毒流行”倡议战略计划的一部分。尽管艾滋病毒的机制模型在评估干预策略中发挥着关键作用,但社会状况通常不是建模框架的一部分。挑战包括缺乏关于社会状况和行为的连贯统计数据。我们开发了一种方法,将无向图形建模与连接函数方法相结合,以整合不同的数据源,估计社会状况和行为的联合概率分布。我们将这些纳入了一个国家级网络模型——艾滋病毒的进展与传播(PATH 4.0),以模拟作为社会状况函数的行为以及作为行为函数的艾滋病毒传播。作为该模型潜在应用的一个示范,我们进行了两项假设的情景干预分析,以估计理想的100%有效干预策略的影响。第一项分析将护理行为(以病毒抑制为代理)建模为抑郁、邻里关系、住房、贫困、教育、保险和就业状况的函数。第二项分析将性行为(性伴侣数量和使用安全套情况)建模为从事性交易的人群的就业、住房、贫困和教育状况的函数。然后将艾滋病毒传播和疾病进展模拟为行为的函数,以估计发病率的降低情况。社会决定因素是许多传染病和非传染病的关键驱动因素。我们的工作有助于开发决策支持工具,以全面评估健康和社会不平等的综合征。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ee37/11976357/b604d5e8ab58/10729_2024_9694_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ee37/11976357/9da30b11f2e4/10729_2024_9694_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ee37/11976357/4394619d5da0/10729_2024_9694_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ee37/11976357/784266703a18/10729_2024_9694_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ee37/11976357/ece2e016ea4e/10729_2024_9694_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ee37/11976357/a0cca28433bd/10729_2024_9694_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ee37/11976357/b604d5e8ab58/10729_2024_9694_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ee37/11976357/9da30b11f2e4/10729_2024_9694_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ee37/11976357/4394619d5da0/10729_2024_9694_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ee37/11976357/784266703a18/10729_2024_9694_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ee37/11976357/ece2e016ea4e/10729_2024_9694_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ee37/11976357/a0cca28433bd/10729_2024_9694_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ee37/11976357/b604d5e8ab58/10729_2024_9694_Fig6_HTML.jpg

相似文献

[1]
Mechanistic modeling of social conditions in disease-prediction simulations via copulas and probabilistic graphical models: HIV case study.

Health Care Manag Sci. 2025-3

[2]
A new mixed agent-based network and compartmental simulation framework for joint modeling of related infectious diseases- application to sexually transmitted infections.

Infect Dis Model. 2022-12-23

[3]
Women and AIDS in Zimbabwe: the making of an epidemic.

Int J Health Serv. 1991

[4]
Housing Status, Medical Care, and Health Outcomes Among People Living With HIV/AIDS: A Systematic Review.

Am J Public Health. 2016-1

[5]
Personal exposure to mixtures of volatile organic compounds: modeling and further analysis of the RIOPA data.

Res Rep Health Eff Inst. 2014-6

[6]
High Levels of Syndemics and Their Association with Adherence, Viral Non-suppression, and Biobehavioral Transmission Risk in Miami, a U.S. City with an HIV/AIDS Epidemic.

AIDS Behav. 2019-11

[7]
Human immunodeficiency virus transmission at each step of the care continuum in the United States.

JAMA Intern Med. 2015-4

[8]
Social determinants of health predict state incidence of HIV and AIDS: a short report.

AIDS Care. 2015

[9]
Vital Signs: HIV Transmission Along the Continuum of Care - United States, 2016.

MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2019-3-22

[10]
Modeling the Impact of Social Determinants of Health on HIV.

AIDS Behav. 2021-11

本文引用的文献

[1]
Spatiotemporal modeling of household's food insecurity levels in Ethiopia.

Heliyon. 2024-6-15

[2]
Mapping morphological cortical networks with joint probability distributions from multiple morphological features.

Neuroimage. 2024-8-1

[3]
Bayesian causal inference: a critical review.

Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2023-5-15

[4]
A flexible copula regression model with Bernoulli and Tweedie margins for estimating the effect of spending on mental health.

Health Econ. 2023-6

[5]
Incorporating social determinants of health into the mathematical modeling of HIV/AIDS.

Sci Rep. 2022-11-29

[6]
A Key Comprehensive System for Biobehavioral Surveillance of Populations Disproportionately Affected by HIV (National HIV Behavioral Surveillance): Cross-sectional Survey Study.

JMIR Public Health Surveill. 2022-11-15

[7]
Evaluating the impact of social determinants, conditional cash transfers and primary health care on HIV/AIDS: Study protocol of a retrospective and forecasting approach based on the data integration with a cohort of 100 million Brazilians.

PLoS One. 2022

[8]
Social Determinants of Cardiovascular Disease.

Circ Res. 2022-3-4

[9]
Relationship between housing insecurity, diabetes processes of care, and self-care behaviors.

BMC Health Serv Res. 2022-1-13

[10]
Biological, Psychological, and Social Determinants of Depression: A Review of Recent Literature.

Brain Sci. 2021-12-10

文献AI研究员

20分钟写一篇综述,助力文献阅读效率提升50倍

立即体验

用中文搜PubMed

大模型驱动的PubMed中文搜索引擎

马上搜索

推荐工具

医学文档翻译智能文献检索