Wubetie Habtamu T, Zewotir Temesgen, Mitku Aweke A, Dessie Zelalem G
College of Science, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia.
Statistics Department, College of Natural and Computational Science, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia.
Heliyon. 2024 Jun 15;10(12):e32958. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e32958. eCollection 2024 Jun 30.
The state of moderate and severe food insecurity in Ethiopia has not been significantly reduced for a long time due to cultural, natural, and manmade shocks, which cover most part of the country with considerable magnitude and have adverse effects on the health and economy. This temporal evolution of the wider geographic distribution of the food insecurity levels has not been investigated for the feeding culture and shocks effect in Ethiopia, though previous studies have indicated significant geographic distribution and related factors. In addition, the longtime zone-specific comprehensive drivers were not assessed. Therefore, this study focused on investigating the feeding culture-adjusted food insecurity levels (FCSL) and their evolutional sustainability across zones by identifying the factors causing each level of household's food insecurity tailored to a specific zone. In this study, Ethiopian socio-economic longitudinal data from years 2012, 2014, and 2016 with a sample size of 3835 households were analyzed. An ordinal spatiotemporal model with different interactions under empirical Bayes estimation was adopted, and the type III interaction with Markov random field was selected to reveal the evolution of FCSL sustainability across zones and find-out the causing factors of households to each level of food insecurity tailored to zone-level by analyzing the effects of diverse factors and shocks. The result reveals that a greater portion (52.07 %) of households' population is moderately and chronically food insecure. Basically, households living in neighboring zones have significantly similar food insecurity levels, and slight improvements were observed over time. This transition over time within neighboring zones, revealed that chronic food insecurity in neighboring zones has transited to moderate food insecurity, particularly in most of the northern and southwestern areas of Ethiopia. However, the interaction term showed that the change in food insecurity levels for households living in neighboring zones is similar at one time point, but the evolution is not sustainable. Therefore, working on major zone-specific factors, such as enhancing zone-level urbanization through improving market and road linkage to rural areas, education, employment, non-agricultural businesses, and promoting integrated farming by conserving soil with consideration of additional confounding factors, will bring change and can sustainably eradicate moderate and chronic food insecurity in zone households through controlling dependency ratios, shocks, and small land size farming. This study brings resilient, manageable, and zone-specific mitigation for households living in food-insecure and vulnerable zones.
由于文化、自然和人为冲击，埃塞俄比亚的中度和重度粮食不安全状况长期以来并未得到显著改善。这些冲击覆盖了该国大部分地区，规模相当大，对健康和经济产生了不利影响。尽管先前的研究表明了粮食不安全水平在地理上的显著分布及相关因素，但埃塞俄比亚粮食不安全水平在更广泛地理区域的这种时间演变，尚未针对喂养文化和冲击影响进行调查。此外，长期以来特定区域的综合驱动因素也未得到评估。因此，本研究着重于通过识别导致特定区域家庭粮食不安全各水平的因素，来调查经喂养文化调整后的粮食不安全水平（FCSL）及其在各区域的演变可持续性。在本研究中，分析了来自2012年、2014年和2016年的埃塞俄比亚社会经济纵向数据，样本量为3835户家庭。采用了在经验贝叶斯估计下具有不同相互作用的有序时空模型，并选择了具有马尔可夫随机场的III型相互作用，通过分析各种因素和冲击的影响，揭示FCSL可持续性在各区域的演变，并找出特定区域层面家庭粮食不安全各水平的成因。结果显示，很大一部分（52.07%）家庭人口处于中度和长期粮食不安全状态。基本上，居住在相邻区域的家庭粮食不安全水平显著相似，且随着时间推移有轻微改善。相邻区域内这种随时间的转变表明，相邻区域的长期粮食不安全已转变为中度粮食不安全，特别是在埃塞俄比亚大部分的北部和西南部地区。然而，交互项表明，居住在相邻区域的家庭在某一时刻粮食不安全水平的变化相似，但这种演变不可持续。因此，针对主要的特定区域因素开展工作，比如通过改善与农村地区的市场和道路连接来提高区域层面的城市化水平、发展教育、提供就业、开展非农业业务，以及通过考虑其他混杂因素保护土壤来促进综合农业，将带来改变，并通过控制抚养比、冲击和小规模土地耕种，可持续地消除区域内家庭的中度和长期粮食不安全。本研究为生活在粮食不安全和脆弱区域的家庭带来了具有弹性、可管理且特定于区域的缓解措施。
