Yan Sizhe, Wang Weiqing, Li Xiaozhu, He Hang, Zhao Xin
Engineering Research Center of Ministry of Education for Renewable Energy Generation and Grid Connection Technology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, 830047, Xinjiang, China.
Xi'an Satellite Measurement and Control Center, Xi'an, 710043, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Dec 3;14(1):30137. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-81133-3.
To accommodate China's electricity market reforms integrating medium and long-term (MLT) transactions and spot transactions, and to boost renewable energy consumption through the spot market, this paper proposes an optimized cross-provincial electricity trading strategy model based on a two-layer game framework. The proposed model incorporates an MLT green certificate contract decomposition method, enabling nested optimization of green certificate contracts and scheduling plans for cross-provincial power transactions. To encourage broader participation, a bilateral green certificate trading framework is established, which globally optimizes green certificate allocation to increase benefits for market participants. A Nash-Stackelberg game model is introduced to address complex game interactions among multiple participants under the green certificate mechanism and the limitation of assuming complete rationality. The game model combines supply and demand sides with an embedded demand-side evolutionary game. Additionally, an improved Aquila optimization algorithm (IAOA) is developed to accurately calculate electricity supply and demand. The algorithm integrates a Circle chaotic map, Sobol sequence, random walk strategy, and filtering technology to enhance optimization capabilities and manage complex constraints. The algorithm is then embedded with a distributed iterative approach to achieve equilibrium strategies. A real-world case study was conducted to validate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model. The results demonstrate that the proposed approach effectively achieves equilibrium, optimizes trading strategies, and fosters win-win, coordinated development among participants in the cross-provincial electricity market.
为适应中国将中长期交易与现货交易相结合的电力市场改革，并通过现货市场提高可再生能源消费量，本文提出了一种基于双层博弈框架的优化跨省电力交易策略模型。该模型纳入了一种中长期绿色证书合同分解方法，能够对跨省电力交易的绿色证书合同和调度计划进行嵌套优化。为鼓励更广泛的参与，建立了双边绿色证书交易框架，该框架对绿色证书分配进行全局优化，以增加市场参与者的收益。引入了纳什-斯塔克尔伯格博弈模型，以解决绿色证书机制下多个参与者之间复杂的博弈互动以及完全理性假设的局限性。该博弈模型将供需双方与嵌入的需求侧进化博弈相结合。此外，还开发了一种改进的天鹰座优化算法（IAOA）来精确计算电力供需。该算法集成了Circle混沌映射、索博尔序列、随机游走策略和滤波技术，以增强优化能力并处理复杂约束。然后将该算法嵌入分布式迭代方法以实现均衡策略。通过实际案例研究验证了所提模型的可行性和有效性。结果表明，所提方法有效地实现了均衡，优化了交易策略，并促进了跨省电力市场参与者之间的双赢、协调发展。
