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碳交易、绿色证书交易与电力市场的动态交互作用：基于系统动力学建模的见解

Dynamic interactions of carbon trading, green certificate trading, and electricity markets: Insights from system dynamics modeling.

作者信息

Zhang Wei, Ji Chao, Liu Yongwei, Hao Yuxing, Song Yang, Cao Youxia, Qi Hui

机构信息

Anhui Power Exchange Center Company Limited, Hefei, China.

Hunan Power Exchange Center Company Limited, Changsha, China.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2024 Jun 13;19(6):e0304478. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0304478. eCollection 2024.

DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0304478
PMID:38870180
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11175399/
Abstract

In the context of the evolving landscape of reduction in carbon emissions and integration of renewable energy, this study uses system dynamics (SD) modeling to explore the interconnected dynamics of carbon trading (CT), tradable green certificate (TGC) trading, and electricity markets. Using differential equations with time delays, the study provides a comprehensive analysis of structural relationships and feedback mechanisms within and between these markets. Key findings reveal the intricate interplay between carbon prices, green certificate prices, and electricity prices under various coupling mechanisms. For example, under the three-market coupling mechanism, carbon trading prices stabilize around 150 Yuan/ton, while green certificate prices reach a peak of 0.45 Yuan/KWH, impacting electricity prices, which fluctuate between 0.33 and 1.09 Yuan / KWH during the simulation period. These quantitative results shed light on nuanced fluctuations in market prices and the dynamics of anticipated purchases and sales volumes within each market. The insights gleaned from this study offer valuable implications for policy makers and market stakeholders in navigating the complexities of carbon emission reduction strategies, the integration of renewable energy and market equilibrium. By understanding the dynamics of multi-market coupling, stakeholders can better formulate policies and strategies to achieve sustainable energy transitions and mitigate impacts of climate change.

摘要

在碳排放减少和可再生能源整合不断演变的背景下，本研究采用系统动力学（SD）建模来探索碳交易（CT）、绿色证书交易（TGC）和电力市场之间的相互关联动态。该研究使用含时滞的微分方程，对这些市场内部及之间的结构关系和反馈机制进行了全面分析。主要研究结果揭示了在各种耦合机制下碳价、绿色证书价格和电价之间的复杂相互作用。例如，在三市场耦合机制下，碳交易价格稳定在150元/吨左右，而绿色证书价格达到峰值0.45元/千瓦时，影响电价，在模拟期内电价在0.33至1.09元/千瓦时之间波动。这些定量结果揭示了市场价格的细微波动以及每个市场内预期买卖量的动态变化。本研究得出的见解为政策制定者和市场利益相关者应对碳排放减少战略、可再生能源整合和市场均衡的复杂性提供了宝贵启示。通过了解多市场耦合的动态，利益相关者可以更好地制定政策和战略，以实现可持续能源转型并减轻气候变化的影响。

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