Integrating structured and unstructured data for predicting emergency severity: an association and predictive study using transformer-based natural language processing models.

BACKGROUND

Efficient triage in emergency departments (EDs) is critical for timely and appropriate care. Traditional triage systems primarily rely on structured data, but the increasing availability of unstructured data, such as clinical notes, presents an opportunity to enhance predictive models for assessing emergency severity and to explore associations between patient characteristics and severity outcomes. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of combining structured and unstructured data to predict emergency severity more accurately.

METHODS

Data from the 2021 National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NHAMCS) for adult ED patients were used. Emergency severity was categorized into urgent (scores 1-3) and non-urgent (scores 4-5) based on the Emergency Severity Index. Unstructured data, including chief complaints and reasons for visit, were processed using a Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) model. Structured data included patient demographics and clinical information. Four machine learning models-Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and Extreme Gradient Boosting-were applied to three data configurations: structured data only, unstructured data only, and combined data. A mean probability model was also created by averaging the predicted probabilities from the structured and unstructured models.

RESULTS

The study included 8,716 adult patients, of whom 74.6% were classified as urgent. Association analysis revealed significant predictors of emergency severity, including older age (OR = 2.13 for patients 65 +), higher heart rate (OR = 1.56 for heart rates > 90 bpm), and specific chronic conditions such as chronic kidney disease (OR = 2.28) and coronary artery disease (OR = 2.55). Gradient Boosting with combined data demonstrated the highest performance, achieving an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.789, an accuracy of 0.726, and a precision of 0.892. The mean probability model also showed improvements over structured-only models.

CONCLUSIONS

Combining structured and unstructured data improved the prediction of emergency severity in ED patients, highlighting the potential for enhanced triage systems. Integrating text data into predictive models can provide more accurate and nuanced severity assessments, improving resource allocation and patient outcomes. Further research should focus on real-time application and validation in diverse clinical settings.